|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Hungary Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 89
Business Monitor International's Hungary Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's oil and gas industry.
The latest Hungary Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.57% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing just 0.16% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will have risen to an estimated 6.05mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.89mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average 13.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total is expected to rise to an estimated 7.76mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.19mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 is forecast to consume 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Hungary’s share of consumption in 2010 is an estimated 1.63%, which is forecast to rise to 1.87% by 2015. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Hungarian real GDP to rise by 0.8% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 2.4% in 2010-2014. Hungarian oil consumption is forecast to reach 162,000b/d in 2010 and we expect a gradual, ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 177,000b/d by 2015. Domestic production, which is largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from its decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes, which are forecast to reach 153,000b/d by 2015. Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 10.4bcm in 2010 to around 14.0bcm in 2015 – implying that net gas imports will reach 12.0bcm by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 17.5%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 127,000b/d to 172,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 10.4bcm to 17.0bcm by 2020, met largely by imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Hungary now holds ninth place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares 11th place with Slovakia in BMI’s updated upstream ratings. The country’s minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset by privatisation progress, the competitive/regulatory environment and reasonable country risk factors. Hungary is below the mid-point of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with a few high scores but no reason to expect near-term progress further up the ratings. It is in ninth place, ahead of Turkmenistan. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, with low scores for likely capacity expansion and oil and gas demand growth. Population and GDP per capita also work against Hungary.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
|
|
|
|
