Poland Agribusiness Report Q1 2011

The Poland Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Poland's agribusiness service.

The publisher continues to be very positive about the prospects for Polish agriculture over our forecast period. Unlike some of its EU peers, we expect to see growth in production of nearly all commodities surveyed in this report. Outperformers are set to include rice, sugar, corn, poultry and beef, all of which are set to show strong growth buoyed by consolidation and modernisation of Poland's agricultural facilities.

Key forecasts:

- Milk production in 2010/11 to increase 0.72% year-on-year to 12.69mn tonnes, as consolidation gathers pace and efficiency rises.

- In 2010/11, rains have delayed sowings of winter wheat, with some effect on yields. Production to come in at 9.5mn tonnes, down 3.0% y-o-y. Similarly, barley production to fall to 3.54mn tonnes from 3.98mn the previous year.

- Unlike other countries, Poland's grain supplies are plentiful and feed prices remain low. In 2010/11, we forecast a 5.3% increase in poultry production to 1.40mn tonnes. Pork production expected to rise 0.97% y-o-y to 1.60mn tonnes, with beef to see a 3.7% y-o-y gain to 423,000tonnes.

- Increasing interest in healthy eating and Asian cuisine should boost rice demand. Consumption should rise 2.5% y-o-y in 2011 to reach 104,800 tonnes. Over our forecast period to 2015, we expect consumption to show strong growth, increasing 31.9% to reach 134,900 tonnes.

- Drought in India has sparked a spike in sugar prices. Polish farmers next season will take advantage of the windfall, planting more sugar beet. In 2010/11, production to rise to 10.2mntonnes, up 15.6% year-on-year.

Industry developments

In December the EC released its proposals for dairy industry reform, having considered the High-Level Group's recommendations. The measures would allow for written contracts between milk producers and processors. The EC also proposed to allow producers to negotiate collectively with dairies, in effect forming a cartel. The measures should give farmers more bargaining power and stabilise prices, allowing them to plan more effectively. We are watching developments closely.

The same month, EU health ministers voted in favour of extending compulsory labeling of agricultural produce to cover lamb, pork and poultry. Nevertheless, BMI believes the legislation, should it be adopted, will bring benefits to Polish pork and poultry producers. Many consumers will favour buying Polish products over, say, imports of Thai and Brazilian poultry.

The EC is considering relaxing the rules on feeding animals to animals. The proposals, should they be implemented, will have positive effects for the livestock industry across the EU, including Poland. At a time when feed costs are starting to rise in response to soaring grain prices, allowing certain types of animal feed should help to push margins back in the right direction.

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
- Poland Agriculture SWOT
- Poland Political SWOT
- Poland Economic SWOT
- Poland Business Environment SWOT

Industry Forecast Scenario:

Poland Grains Outlook
- Table: Poland – Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Corn Production
- Table: Poland – Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Corn Production
- Table: Poland – Barley Production, Consumption & Trade

Poland Dairy Outlook
- Table: Poland – Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: Poland – Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: Poland – Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade

Poland Livestock Outlook
- Table: Poland – Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade

Poland Rice Outlook
- Table: Poland – Rice Consumption
- Table: Poland – Rice Consumption

Poland Sugar Outlook
- Table: Poland – Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Poland – Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade

Competitive Landscape
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers

Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
- Table: Milk
- Sugar
- Table: Sugar
- Grains Update
- Corn
- Table: Corn
- Rice
- Table: Rice
- Soybean
- Table: Soybean
- Wheat
- Table: Wheat

Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data And Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Value/Volume Sales of Canned Food & Confectionery - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Mass Grocery Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format -- Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Poland Grocery Retail Sales By Format -- Historical Data And Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Poland Food, Drink And Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn) -- Historical Data And Forecasts
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Poland - GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2015

Industry Trend Analysis
- Consumer Spending To Continue Booming Despite Eurozone Austerity
- Pasta Market Set For Strong Growth

BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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