Mexico Freight Transport Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 47
Business Monitor International's Mexico Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's freight transportation industry.
2010 has been a year of recovery, in which many Mexican freight operators have gone back in profit. For example, Mexicana de Aviación was saved from bankruptcy when it was bought out by the Mexican consortium Tendora K. However, BMI believes the rebound in the US economy will falter in 2011 and this will cause a slowdown in Mexico. On balance, we believe the last quarter of 2010 will look significantly worse than the previous nine months, with longer-term economic and political concerns – most of which took a back seat during the recent recovery – again set to predominate investor sentiment towards Mexico. The strengthening of the opposition PRI party in the July state elections reinforces our long-held view that, despite strong desire for reform, President Calderón will effectively remain a lameduck president until the end of his tenure in 2012. The trucking dispute with the US is still unresolved and threats greater damage to trade and relations between the two companies.
BMI estimate the air freight sector was one of the strongest areas of growth within Mexico's freight transport sector in 2010, with 20.5 % growth to reach 108,000 tonnes after a decrease of -18.2% in 2009. Mexico's port sector benefited from the 2010 upturn in the country's trade volumes. Mexico's largest port, the port of Manzanillo, experienced estimated growth of 18.2% in 2010.
A key industry trend was the number of multinationals increasing their services into Mexico during the last quarter suggests that some businesses are taking a long-term view that Mexico is the gateway into the new emerging economies of Latin America. The Brink's Company acquired Servicio Pan Americano de Proteccion SA de CV (SPP) in late November. The Intertape Polymer Group strengthened its operations in Mexico during mid October by expanding its relationship with Transplace to establish a new distribution centre in Monterrey. CEVA increased its freight service from Mexico to Canada by adding a service between the Gulf Coast and Alberta in August. Pilot Freight Services opened a station in Texas in early August, near the border with Mexico to capture trade there as well. Pan American Airways are restarting an air freight service that will initially focus on Mexico. CSAV Group and CMA CGM changed their shipping services between Mexico and Asia and also North Europe and Mexico and the US Gulf.
A key risk to the economic outlook is the growth level in US after the sudden rebound from the depths of the crisis in 2009. This growth is likely to fall, which will also affect Mexico’s GDP growth and freight demand. Although Mexico's export-led recovery has been impressive, strong export growth did not have a positive impact on domestic demand. With the export outlook looking weaker, we reaffirm our view that growth will slow through 2011; BMI estimates real GDP growth of 4.4% and 3.2% for 2010 and 2011 respectively. A faster-than-expected US slowdown will have a negative impact on our freight forecasts.
The other major threat is political risk at home and the possibility of the Mexican government becoming deadlocked in congress due to the strengthened PRI opposition party. This could affect investor sentiment and delay new freight projects.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Political SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
- Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
- Logistics And Intermodal
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Water
Industry Trends And Developments
- Logistics And Intermodal
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Maritime
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2010 (US$/BBL)
- Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/BBL)
Industry Forecast
- Table: Road Freight, 2007-2015
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2008-2015
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight – Throughput, 2007-2015 (‘000 tonnes)
- Table: Inland Waterway, 2007-2015
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2015
- Trade Overview
- Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2015
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2007-2015
- Table: Mexico’s Main Import Partners, 2002-2008m (US$mn)
- Table: Mexico’s Main Export Partners, 2002-2008m (US$mn)
Company Profiles
- Grupo TMM
- Grupo México
- Consorcio Aeroméxico
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources
- Grupo TMM
- Grupo México
- Consorcio Aeroméxico
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