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Mexico Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 40
Business Monitor International's Mexico Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's power industry.
The newly published Mexico Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 21.29% of Latin America regional power generation by 2015, with a small but growing power surplus available for export to the US, even after system losses etc. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,209 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.13% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,432TWh by 2015, representing an increase of 18.4% during 2010-2015.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 447TWh, accounting for 37.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 496TWh, implying 11.0% growth during 2010-2015, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.6% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Mexico’s 2010 thermal generation is estimated at 217TWh, representing 48.65% of the regional total. By 2015, it is expected to account for 46.18% of regional thermal generation.
For Mexico, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 50.4% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 37.4%, coal at 4.7%, hydro-electric energy at 3.8% and nuclear energy with a 1.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 780mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 18.6% growth during 2010-2015. Mexico’s estimated market share in 2010 will have been 26.10%, easing to a forecast 25.48% by 2015. The country’s 9.7TWh of estimated nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 11.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the Latin American nuclear market set to ease from 31.09% to 30.56%.
Mexico is ranked sixth, ahead of only Venezuela, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable market size and reasonable growth prospects. The lack of privatisation progress, a poorly-developed competitive landscape and a demanding regulatory environment conspire with country risk factors to depress the score and put Mexico near the foot of the table. While Peru is likely to remain out of reach, Mexico should be able to keep Venezuela at bay.
BMI is now forecasting average annual Mexican real GDP growth of 2.87% between 2010 and 2015, with an increase of 3.20% assumed for 2011. The population is expected to expand from 108.5mn to 113.1mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase by 55%. Electricity consumption per capita is now expected to increase during the period by around 8%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 209TWh in 2010, to 236TWh by the end of the forecast period, This results in a small supply surplus after power industry usage and system losses, assuming 2.4% average annual growth in electricity generation between 2010 and 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Mexican electricity generation of 22.4%, below the Latin American average. This equates to 10.0% in 2015-2020, down from 11.3% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from the 2010-2015 level of 14.6% to 14.9% in 2015-2020, or 31.7% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 45% in hydro-power use in 2010-2020 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 36% between 2010 and 2020, with nuclear demand rising by 24%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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