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Poland Information Technology Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 65
Business Monitor International's Poland Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, information technology associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's information technology industry.
Market Overview Polish IT spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% between 2011 and 2015, with IT services driving growth for the sector as a whole. The size of the IT market is estimated to increase to around US$13.8bn in 2015. Poland consumer spending bounced back in 2010, with electronics goods such as notebooks among the biggest drivers of growth.
Poland IT market growth is projected at around 9% in 2011 and the country still looks well positioned to be one of the best regional IT market prospects. However, the current global economic headwinds will mean slower growth during BMI’s five-year forecast period compared with the pre-economic crisis 2006-2008 trend level.
Enterprise IT spending should pick up in 2011. It is estimated that the average product replacement lengthened by around half a year during the economic slowdown, creating a latent demand for upgrades.Business and consumer investment will remain vulnerable, however, to any sign of weakness in the euro zone or global economic recovery.
Industry Developments Poland’s National IT Infrastructure Plan for 2007-2013 was formally adopted by the government in 2008,following a public sector IT spending slowdown in preceding years. In 2009, EU funding drove a series of projects, with the IT component to be worth nearly EUR1bn. According to the National Infrastructure Plan, some 75% of funds spent on government IT projects over the next five years is expected to come from the EU.
BMI forecasts that wireless internet access will grow rapidly. Poland’s broadband operators are also encouraging xDSL and cable-based broadband take-up by offering new innovative services, such as IPTV, video on demand and VoIP in double- and triple-play packages. Such services will encourage subscriptions and drive spending on computers and other household electronics products.Competitive Landscape
One area that PC vendors will watch is the e-reader market, with local vendors such as Kolporter releasing their own e-reader devices. Kolporter released its eClicto book reader in Poland in December2009 at a price of PLN899 but sales were reportedly modest. The company planned to release a new version of the eClicto in H210 with a faster interface and internet access, but said it would wait for the official iPad debut in Poland to assess the market’s reaction.
Leading IT distributor AB forecast 3% revenues growth in 2010, which was in line with BMI’s projection for the Polish IT market as a whole. AB plans to prepare for an expected future IT market boom with implementation of a new IT system at an estimated cost of several million zlotys. In the first half of its latest fiscal year, AB’s revenues were PLN1.57bn, down by around 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y).
A potential demand driver will be organisations looking for help to utilise efficiencies from cloud computing such as SaaS and Infrastucture-as-a-Service. In July 2010, IBM announced that it would establish a university cloud computing centre in Wroclaw, Poland. IBM will cooperate with the Wroclaw University of Technology to make cloud-focused courses available to students. In May 2009 IBM has signed a contact with the Ministry of Science and Education that provided for the establishment of an IBM research centre in Wroclaw.
Computer Sales Poland’s computer hardware sales are projected at US$3.5bn in 2011 and are forecast to reach around US$5.2bn by 2015. In the medium term, a quick look at Poland’s forecast growth trajectory reveals how quickly Poland could close the PC ownership gap with Western Europe, as incomes (driven by the effect of EU membership) increase.
PC penetration reached around 50% in 2008, and BMI projects that it could reach 75% by 2015. Falling prices of both desktops and notebooks have been a major growth driver for the hardware market, along with EU aid and overall economic recovery. Research has revealed that Poles are starting to purchase more high-end computers.
Software The Polish software market is projected to be worth US$2.1bn in 2011 and is likely to grow to US$3.2bn by 2015, giving a CAGR of 11%. Migrations to the Windows 7 operating system have the potential to impact positively on sales in 2011 as many businesses are still using Windows XP. Rising computer penetration in the enterprise sector has driven continued growth of software demand, despite software piracy issues.
The procurement of basic software packages such as enterprise resource planning (ERP) still accounts for about half of enterprise software spending, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, vendors are increasingly focused on more specialised applications, such as customer relationship management (CRM)and business intelligence, where faster growth is possible.
IT Services IT services spending, projected at US$3.4bn in 2011, is the fastest-growing sector of the IT market and is expected to rise to US$5.4bn by 2015. Spending on IT services is projected to grow by a low single-digit factor in 2011, boosted by projects delayed as a result of the economic slowdown, and as a result many businesses will remain cautious.
With a larger installed IT base, acceptance of the need for IT services is spreading through many organisations. While systems integration as well as hardware and software support and installation still collectively account for more than one-half of total IT spending, outsourcing has become the fastest growing segment.
E-Readiness The internet market continues to be constrained by high telephone charges and relatively low levels of computer penetration. Moreover, there are wide regional disparities, with internet penetration about twice as high in urban as in rural areas.
A recent Forrester survey revealed that, while overall online banking uptake and PC availability remained low, Polish internet consumers already matched southern Europeans in online shopping. Poland even outperformed Spain, with 30% of online consumers having previously purchased something online,compared with just 29% in Spain.
How broadband will develop in the longer term will greatly depend on the Polish regulator’s success at forcing Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA) into a functional split, as well as its continued liberalisation of the market. The regulator believes that the split will happen in 2010 or 2011, but there are high risks that could be delayed longer than this. How wireless technologies are deployed to the rural regions will also be a major factor in the proliferation of broadband.
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