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France Real Estate Report Q1 2011

Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 53


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The France Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's Real Estate industry.

In absolute terms, there is, and has been an over-supply of commercial real estate in most major cities and sub-sectors in France. Nevertheless, our interviews of in-country sources in March 2010 and July 2010 have confirmed that the global financial crisis has had far less impact on the sector than in most other countries surveyed by BMI.

Rental rates fell during 2009, and continued to slip, marginally, in Paris and Marseille through the first half of 2010. However, thanks apparently to a recovery in tourism, rental rates have already started to recover in Nice. Our in-country sources envisage that rents will rise by around 5% in all three cities and sub-sectors for which we have gathered data.

The figures cited by our in-country sources suggest that capital values fell last year, but not by much. Yields rose, and by more in Nice than in the other two cities. We expect that yields will fall back to around the levels that were prevailing in 2007-2008.

More generally, we are maintaining our 2010 and 2011 real GDP forecasts of 1.5% and 1% respectively, following a 2.6% contraction in 2009. While France is unlikely to relapse into recession, the recovery will be sluggish, and significant downside risks are presented by weak pan-European fiscal dynamics and their potential contagion effects.


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