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Germany Real Estate Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 53
The Germany Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's Real Estate industry.
Germany's commercial real estate sector is unusual in that it has been, remains, and appears likely to stay in a state of equilibrium. In spite of substantial amounts of vacant space in absolute terms, demand is sufficient to underpin rents and to maintain stability in yields and capital values. Aside from a brutal fall in rental rates in Dusseldorf's industrial sub-sector in 2009, the global financial crisis had little impact on the commercial real estate sector.
We interviewed in-country sources at the beginning of 2010 and again in July 2010. The latest data confirm that little has changed. Rental rates have basically stabilised. Office rents may have fallen (just), by double-digit amounts in Frankfurt: however, the typical pattern has been for minor rises or falls. To a greater extent than in other countries, yields have also remained constant. We forecast that yields will remain broadly unchanged until the end of 2011. However, there is potential for them to rise slightly as net rentals increase relative to prices and capital values from 2012. In mid- 2010, our in-country sources indicated that rental rates are not expected to change in 2011. With the eurozone economy facing a difficult period of fiscal austerity programmes, persisting fears of a renewed sovereign debt crisis in the bloc's periphery and a softening economic recovery in the US, we believe that the outlook for a weaker 2011 will increasingly feed through to the main leading indicators in Germany, pointing towards a slowdown in real GDP growth in 2011. We are currently forecasting 2.1% real GDP growth for 2011, down on our robust 3.4% growth estimate for 2010.
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