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Hong Kong Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 100
Hong Kong Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q111 Telecommunications Report on Hong Kong contains both revised and extended forecasts and analysis of recent market trends following the publication of latest market data by Hong Kong’s telecoms regulator, the Office of the Telecommunications Authority (OFTA), and by some of the service providers. The regulator published figures for the number of mobile subscribers to the end of Q210, allowing us to provide a more accurate picture of the position of the country’s five mobile network operators, of which three, Hutchison 3G, SmarTone and PCCW Mobile, had published operational and financial figures for the first half of 2010. Furthermore, the release of new data by the OFTA has allowed us to reflect on our forecasts through to the end of 2014, and extend our forecast period to 2015 for both the mobile and internet sectors.
According to the regulator, there were 12.701mn mobile subscribers in the sector by June 2010, reflecting growth of 1.2% q-o-q and 8.5% y-o-y. The strong performance, which carried on from the 8.5% y-o-y growth reported in our Q410 quarterly report, was driven by increased subscriber uptake in the latter part of 2009 and in the first half of 2010. That said, net additions during Q210 actually fell by 56% q-o-q, with only 151,000 new subscribers added. This compares poorly with the 343,000 added in the first quarter, which was itself a rise of 26.8% q-o-q. However, it is noteworthy that a large quantity of the total prepaid subscriber base was considered inactive. The considerable number of inactive prepaid users and dual SIM card owners in the country has resulted in high a mobile penetration rate, which stood at of 171.8% at the end of 2009.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong operators continue to report strong growth in the number of postpaid and 3G subscribers. According to OFTA, Hong Kong had 4.645mn 3G subscribers at by July 2010, reflecting an impressive y-o-y growth of 45.3% since July 2009. 3G subscriptions accounted for 35.26% of total mobile market in July 2010, up from 26.9% at the end of July 2009. The results for the total mobile subscriber base in 2010 have served to add credence to our 3G forecast to 2014, reaching close to a penetration rate of 98%.
Significantly in Q410, CSL launched its LTE/DC-HSPA+ network in partnership with Chinese telecoms equipment vendor ZTE. The operator is initially offering corporate services over the network and plans to launch commercial consumer services in Q111. The network will enable CSL to offer optimal network coverage, enhanced capacity and improved data transfer speeds along with better services to subscribers. The network is claimed to be the world's first commercial-grade LTE/DC-HSPA+ network. In BMI’s view the deployment of the network will help the operator cater to the growing mobile data services market in Hong Kong. BMI estimated there were 3.82mn 3G subscribers in 2009 and expects the total to rise 80.43% by 2014 to 6.891mn. During this period the 3G market, as a percentage of the entire mobile market, will rise from 54.48-94.62%.
As for the latest regulatory development, the past quarter saw Hong Kong's telecoms regulator considering introducing a scheme where a spectrum utilisation fee (SUF) would be imposed on spectrum in congested frequency bands. Cellular News reports that the regulator called for opinions on the scheme at the start of December 2010, which would result in the SUF applying to eight active frequency bands used as fixed links, electronic news gathering/outside broadcast links and satellite links.
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