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Slovenia Telecommunications Report 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 84
Slovenia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's telecommunications industry.
2011 report on Slovenia’s telecom market contains updated and extended forecasts, which predict how the country’s fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors will develop through to the end of 2015. Our new forecasts reflect 2009 data published by Slovenia’s regulator, the Post and Electronic Communications Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (APEK), as well as 2009 data published by the country’s fixed-line incumbent operator Telekom Slovenije, and its two leading mobile operators, Mobitel (the mobile business of Telekom Slovenije) and Si.mobil, which is wholly owned by Telekom Austria.
In the year ended December 2009 Slovenia’s mobile subscriber base expanded by just 2.5% as penetration rates reached 102.6%. The slowdown in growth during 2009 compared to 6.4% y-o-y increase in 2008 is the result of negative economic growth and an already competitive market leading to aggressive pricing culminating in negative blended ARPU growth. To this end, Slovenia’s leading mobile operators have placed greater emphasis on the acquisition of higher value customers and the growth of mobile internet subscribers.
The aggressive competition in the mobile sector is perhaps a major factor behind Tušmobil’s exit from the market. The operator’s parent company, the diversified business group Tuš, announced the sale of the country’s third-largest operator. The sale was expected to be formalised in September 2010 netting the company about EUR150mn. Local newspaper Delo suggests European majors such as France Télécom's Orange, Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile and pan-European carrier Tele2 are the favoured candidates. While Slovenia certainly represents a gap in all of these companies' existing European footprints, BMI believes these companies will be wary of entering such a mature market in competition with wellestablished players. Instead, BMI considers that a private equity group could be more likely. Mid Europa Partners (MEP), a serial investor in telecoms and broadband in Central and Eastern Europe, is the most likely candidate.
Meanwhile, fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) continues to be the fastest growing broadband technology. Regulatory data shows the number of FTTH connections grew 53.6% y-o-y to 68,442 as of YE09. This compared to a 304% increase during 2008 to end on 44,564. Telekom Slovenije had a 34.4% share of the FTTH market, but has spied an opportunity to significantly boost its share. The incumbent believes T-2 will not be able to pay the fees it owes for leasing capacity on its national copper and fibre transmission backbones, as well as its international connections, and it is therefore pursuing T-2 through the courts to file for bankruptcy. This would give the victorious incumbent the opportunity to cherry-pick the valuable assets left behind such as T-2’s FTTH network, which occupies a 61% market share. However, this would likely result in competition issues relating to fairness and the need to liberalise this fast-growing market.
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