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Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 86
The Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's oil and gas industry.
This latest Kuwait Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 5.46% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 10.22% of supply. Middle East regionaloil use of 4.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is forecast to increase to 7.40mn b/d in 2010. It shouldaverage 7.70mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 8.70mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was22.83mn b/d in 2001 and is expected to average 24.96mn b/d in 2010. After reaching an estimated25.22mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, becausedemand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average17.85mn b/d. This total is forecast to ease to an estimated 17.55mn b/d in 2010, reaching 18.54mn b/d by2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
The region is forecast to consume 391 bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in 2010, with demand of 483bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.7% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in 2010should reach 614bcm in 2015 (+31.4%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end of theperiod. Kuwait is set to consume an estimated 3.62% of the region’s gas in 2010, with its market shareforecast at 3.88% by 2014. It is expected to contribute an estimated 2.83% to 2010 regional gasproduction and by 2014 will account for 2.90% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price ofUS$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering aroundUS$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC priceaveraging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, BMI’s assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a year-on-year rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price ofUS$88.00/bbl, expected to peak in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturnrepresents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to beUS$89.500/bbl, compared with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. BMI puts the 2010 average naphtha price atUS$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI forecasts Kuwait’s real GDP rising by 2.0% in 2010, with average annual growth of 3.1% anticipated in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 423,000b/d in 2010 to475,000b/d in 2015, lagging the underlying rate of economic expansion. State oil company KuwaitPetroleum Corporation (KPC) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas operations. Despite theabsence of near-term international oil company (IOC) investment, crude production is forecast to increasefrom an estimated 2.49mn b/d in 2010 to 2.79mn b/d in 2015, subject to OPEC quotas. Gas productionshould reach 17.8bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to risefrom an estimated 14.1bcm in 2010 to 18.8bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of1.0bcm.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti oil production of 38.6%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 3.45mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 25.4%, with growth slowing to an average 3.0% per annum towardsthe end of the period and the country using 530,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to climb to20.8bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 70.6%, this provides an importrequirement rising to 3.3bcm by 2020. Details of the BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendixto this report.
Kuwait now takes last place in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The Gulf state holds eighth place, above Saudi Arabia, inBMI’s updated upstream ratings, which is a surprising outcome in view of its vast oil and gas wealth. It isthree points behind Oman and may ultimately be able to mount a challenge. Kuwait’s score suffers fromstrict government control of the upstream industry, undermining the healthy resource position. Kuwait isin the lower half of the league table in BMI’s downstream ratings, with a few high scores and near-termprogress up the rankings a possibility. It is ranked equal seventh alongside Oman, thanks to country riskfactors that fail to counter the highly regulated and largely state-controlled industry.
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