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Moldova Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 71
The Moldova Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Moldova's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In our updated Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Rating (BER) matrix for Q111, Moldova has slipped to the bottom of the Emerging Europe table, which ranks 20 markets in the region. The economic and political situation remain relatively challenging, which will weigh on pharmaceutical growth going forward. Similarly, although Moldova improved its ranking in the latest issue of the International Corruption Perceptions Index survey, the country is still placed firmly below every other non-Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) country in the Emerging Europe region.
Moldovan real GDP is calculated to have contracted by 6.5% in 2009, as the deterioration of the external economic climate weighed on export growth and consumer sentiment, which had a direct impact on the availability of both public and private financing for healthcare services and pharmaceutical treatments. In the current year, exact valuations of the country’s pharmaceutical and medical device markets will remain difficult to achieve, given distortions caused by a lack of proper separation between prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) products in the case of the former, and donations of hospital equipment, in the case of the latter.
In 2009, pharmaceutical expenditure in Moldova reached a value of MDL2.15bn (US$191mn), having grown at a double-digit rate over the previous three years. The next five years should see a period of lower growth, compared with 2004-2009, as the country recovers from its economic difficulties. Economic recovery rates within both the European Union (EU) and Russia will have an impact on Moldova’s economy. Therefore, by 2014, we expect the drug market to be worth MDL3.28bn (US$259mn), thus experiencing a CAGR of 8.83% in local currency terms and 6.34% in US dollar terms. Over the extended forecast 2009-2019 period, we calculate the drug market will experience CAGRs of 10.09% and 9.39%, respectively, reaching a value of MDL5.61bn (US$467mn).
Risks to our forecasts are posed by both economic and political factors. In the case of the latter, Moldova’s pro-EU stance should encourage the development of trade with mainland Europe. In fact, parliamentary elections in Moldova on November 28 are likely to result in a victory for the ruling Alliance for European Integration coalition. However, at this juncture, we believe the coalition is unlikely to secure the 61 seats in parliament required to elect a new president. Consequently, we expect the political stalemate – with the country going to the polls for the third time since April 2009 – to continue into 2011, which will further delay the country's western convergence as well as its attractiveness to potential investors.
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