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Jordan Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 87
The Jordan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Jordan's telecommunications industry.
Our latest update on the Jordan telecommunications market contains newly published data on the fixedline and internet markets by the country’s Telecoms Regulatory Commission (TRC). With no new mobile data published except by Zain Jordan, BMI has estimated latest figures for September 2010. This has led to the revision of our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets. We have also extended our forecast period to 2015.
There were a total of 1.956mn internet users at the end of June 2010 representing 214,000 net additions since the end of 2009 when there were 1.742mn users. This compared to 2009, when there had been just 29,000 net additions, revealing there to be stronger demand for internet services. For the most part, this is being driven by higher personal computer (PC) penetration rates and lower tariffs. Our revised and extended forecasts expect that there will be 2.173mn internet users by the end of 2010, before increasing at an annual average rate of 11.2% to reach 3.7mn internet users by 2015.
Jordan Telecom continues to dominate the fixed-line market, with a share of around 99.9%. The TRC states there were 499,278 fixed lines in the market at the end of June 2010, of which Jordan Telecom had 499,000 lines. The number of residential lines continued to dominate the market, with a total of 318,328 representing a y-o-y fall of 3.03%. For the remaining corporate lines there were a total of 180,950, and which represented a y-o-y increase of 1.85%. Despite the increase, this was not enough to offset the overall decline of the fixed-line market, although we note there has been a slowdown in the decline. By the end of 2010, our newly-revised forecasts expect there to be 505,000 lines, with a penetration rate of 8.3%, before falling to 7.1% at the end of 2015.
In terms of the mobile market, only Zain released its figures for September 2010. The operator announced 90,000 net additions in the most recent quarter, compared to net losses of 50,000 and 240,000 in Q210 and Q110 respectively. BMI estimates that Zain’s share of the mobile market had reached 38.7% at the end of September 2010, revealing a decline from 42.5% at the end of September 2009. In terms of the overall mobile market, we expect there were 6.651mn mobile subscribers at the end of September 2010, and estimate there will be 6.937mn subscribers by the end of 2010.
Meanwhile, Jordan slipped to ninth place in BMI’s recent Business Environment Ratings table. Its composite score of 53.7 remained unchanged over the quarter, its decline in the table being a result of Iraq’s score now surpassing the country. Jordan now maintains a lead over Libya, on a score of 52.2.
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