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Viewing report
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Bulgaria Shipping Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Nov 2010, Pages: 104
The Bulgaria Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's freight transportation industry.
Throughput at Bulgaria's main port of Varna, is on course to start recovering its throughput in 2010, after total tonnage volumes and box throughput plunged by 12.9% and 27.5% respectively in 2009. Latest year to date figures (January-September 2010) with tonnage volumes at the port reaching 5.958mn tonnes, an increase of 1.112mn tonnes on last year's figure for this period, indicate that the port is on course to reach BMI's forecast throughput for the whole year, which will see the port reclaim its pre-downturn throughput levels.
The outlook for container volumes at the facility is not so rosy, as although a recovery is afoot, BMI predicts a y-o-y increase of just 10.8% in box volumes, which will not be enough for the port to erase the damage of the downturn on its throughput figures.
2011 will see a further improvement in volumes in our view, with tonnage growth back on track, but box volumes struggling to reach their 2008 highs.
Headline Industry Data
- 2011 port of Varna tonnage throughput forecast 2.3% following a projected growth of 16.9% in 2010.
- 2011 port of Varna container throughput forecast 3.2% following a projected growth of 10.78% in 2010.
- 2011 total trade forecast 2.5%. Key Industry Trend Tendering, But Will Investors Bite? Bulgaria is seeking investors in a bid to upgrade its maritime and waterway sector. While BMI believes that in the long term this type of investment is necessary, we fear that Bulgaria might struggle to find interest for its planned container terminal concessions, with growth in box volumes at Varna expected to be sluggish in the medium term.
Risks To Outlook Sluggish real GDP growth has already been factored into our trade forecasts for Bulgaria and so therefore our throughput projections at the port of Varna. We fear, however, downside risk could stem from a depressed demand outlook in consumer demand, which we fear will mean that a recovery in box throughput will be slow. Bulgaria's population is forecast to decrease, falling by 4% between 2010 and 2015. At the same time unemployment is to remain relatively high, at 10.5% of labour force in 2010 and 8.3% in 2011. We project it will only sink down to its pre-downturn level of 6% in 2014, stymieing demand for goods shipped by container.
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