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Argentina Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 51
The Argentina Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's power industry.
The newly published Argentina Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2015 the country will account for 10.40% of Latin American regional power generation, with a broadly balanced market after transmission losses etc. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,209 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.13% over the previous year. It is forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,432TWh by 2015, representing an increase of 18.4% during 2010-2015.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 447TWh, accounting for 37.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 496TWh, implying 11.0% growth during 2010-2015, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.6% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Argentina’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 76.9TWh, or 17.2% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 17.4% of thermal generation.
For Argentina, in 2010 gas will have been the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 51.8% of PED, followed by oil at 29.3%, hydro at 12.3%, nuclear at 3.2% and coal at 1.4%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 780mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 18.6% growth during 2010- 2015. Argentina’s estimated 2010 market share of 11.76% is set to fall to 11.21% by the end of the forecast period. Argentina’s estimated 8.0TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to remain around this level in 2015, with its share of the regional nuclear market set to fall from an estimated 25.64% to 22.22% over the period.
Argentina is ranked fourth in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, scoring two fewer points than third-placed Chile in spite of its market size and low energy import dependency. Peru is five points behind and poses no immediate threat. The Argentinean power sector is competitive, with more progress towards privatisation than seen in most other countries. The regulatory environment has deteriorated in the last few years, thanks to government intervention in energy pricing, but remains more attractive than in other parts of the region.
BMI is now forecasting Argentinean average annual real GDP growth of 3.50% between 2010 and 2015, with an increase of 4.10% assumed in 2011. The population is expected to expand from 40.7mn to 42.4mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 90% and 10% respectively during the forecast period. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 112TWh in 2010 to 128TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a broadly balanced market after power industry usage and system losses, assuming 3.1% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, an increase in Argentinean electricity generation of 25.8%, is forecast, which is one of the lowest for the Latin America region. This equates to 11.4% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 12.9% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 13.1% in 2010-2015 to 8.8% in 2015- 2020, representing 23.1% for the entire forecast period. An expected increase of 18% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 26% between 2010 and 2020, with nuclear consumption set to increase by 50%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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