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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 67
The Belgium Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's oil and gas industry.
The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.08% of developed European regional oil demand by 2015, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption will have been an estimated 13.02mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to recover to around 13.24mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 will have averaged an estimated 4.44mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.50mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports will have been an estimated 8.58mn b/d. By 2015, they are expected to have reached 9.73mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 419.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 470.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 12.2% growth. Production of an estimated 259.3bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 253.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.2bcm to some 217.7bcm by the end of the period.
Belgium’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 4.17%, while it makes no contribution to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.90%.
For 2010 as a whole, an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) is assumed, +26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. The central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40/bbl and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl is being used.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a year-on-year rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.50/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
Belgian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.8% in 2010. An average annual growth of 1.9% is forecast in 2010-2015. Oil demand is expected to have recovered only slightly in 2010, before rising slowly to reach 805,000b/d by 2015. From an estimated 17.5bcm in 2010, gas demand is expected to rise to a minimum of 18.4bcm by 2015, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2010 and 2020, an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 1.90% is forecast, with volumes rising slowly from an estimated 785,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 805,000b/d by 2015/16. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 17.5bcm to 19.3bcm by 2020, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Belgium’s long-term political risk score is 80.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.8 and the global average of 63.0. The long-term economic rating for the country is 65.9, just below the Developed Markets average of 66.6 and above the global average of 52.8. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are open to competition.
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