Canada Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 104
The Canada Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's oil and gas industry.
The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.93% of North American regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 29.18% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption is estimated to reach 21.25mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to rise to around 21.57mn b/d by 2015. North American regional oil production is expected to have averaged an estimated 12.14mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 14.05mn b/d by 2015. Net imports for the region should be 7.52mn b/d in 2015 – down from an estimated 9.12mn b/d in 2010.
In terms of natural gas, North America will have consumed an estimated 746bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 725bcm targeted for 2015, representing a decline of 2.82%. Estimated production of 718bcm in 2010 should ease to 708bcm in 2015, which implies net imports falling to just 17bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is estimated to have been 12.88%, while it contributed 23.12% to regional production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 14.49%, with 22.32% of regional supply.
For 2010 as a whole, an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) is assumed, +26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. The central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40/bbl and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl is being used.
For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil estimate is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is estimated to be US$89.50/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year’s level.
BMI assumes that Canadian real GDP will have risen by 3.1% in 2010. A 2.8% average annual growth in 2010-2015 is assumed. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.29mn b/d in 2011, before rising to 2.36mn b/d by 2015. Total oil output looks set to reach 4.10mn b/d by 2015, subject to the pace of oil sands development.
Between 2010 and 2020, an increase in Canadian oil production of 35.95% is forecast, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.31mn b/d in 2010 to 4.50mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by 7.06%, exports should rise from an estimated 1.03mn b/d to 2.05mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production (including shale gas and coal bed methane) should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 166bcm to 153bcm by 2020. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 96.1bcm to 113.2bcm, leaving end-period net exports of 39.8bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 85.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.0. The long-term economic rating for the country is 68.4, above the Developed Markets average of 66.6 and above the global average of 52.8.
Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Canada Political SWOT
Canada Economic SWOT
Canada Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Regaining Momentum
Quarterly Trends
Global Oil Market Outlook
Sitting Comfortably
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Canada Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Canada Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries in Canada
Service Stations
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Canada – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Canadian Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Suncor
Shell Canada
EnCana
Cenovus Energy – Summary
Canadian Natural Resources – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Devon Energy – Summary
Syncrude – Summary
BP Canada – Summary
Husky Energy – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Statoil – Summary
Total – Summary
Murphy Oil – Summary
Enbridge – Summary
Nexen – Summary
Occidental Petroleum – Summary
TransCanada – Summary
UTS Energy – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Ultramar – Summary
TAQA – Summary
Apache – Summary
Penn West – Summary
Talisman Energy – Summary
PetroChina – Summary
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: North America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: North America Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: North America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: North America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: North America Gas Production (bcm)
Canada Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology
Table: Structure Of BMI’s Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Upstream Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Downstream Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
Sources
- Suncor
- Shell Canada
- EnCana
- Cenovus Energy
- Canadian Natural Resources
- ConocoPhillips
- Chevron
- Devon Energy
- Syncrude
- BP Canada
- Husky Energy
- ExxonMobil
- Statoil
- Total
- Murphy Oil
- Enbridge
- Nexen
- Occidental Petroleum
- TransCanada
- UTS Energy
- Gazprom
- Ultramar
- TAQA
- Apache
- Penn West
- Talisman Energy
- PetroChina
- Korea National Oil Corporation
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