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Chile Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 52
The Chile Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's power industry.
The newly published Chile Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2015 the country will account for 5.40% of Latin American regional power generation. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,209 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.13% over the previous year. A rise in regional generation to 1,432TWh is forecast by 2015, representing an increase of 18.4% during 2010-2015.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 447TWh, accounting for 37.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 496TWh, implying 11.0% growth during 2010-2015, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.6% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. In 2010, Chile’s thermal generation was an estimated 31.3TWh, or 6.99% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 7.48% of thermal generation.
Oil will have been the dominant fuel in 2010, accounting for an estimated 51% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 21%, gas at 11% and coal at 13%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 780mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 18.6% growth during 2010-2015.
Chile’s estimated 2010 market share of 4.61% is set to rise to 487% by 2015. There is no existing nuclear power generating capacity in Chile, but there is growing support for a small-scale project to diversify further the country’s electricity supply. As yet, there are no firm plans to build nuclear installations.
Chile is now ranked third behind Brazil and Colombia in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its power consumption growth prospects, privatisation progress, competitive landscape and regulatory framework. Country risk factors are generally supportive and the one-point gap between the respective scores of Chile and Colombia means that they will continue to battle over second and third places.
BMI is now forecasting Chilean average annual real GDP growth of 3.8% between 2010 and 2015, with an increase of 4.5% assumed for 2011. The population is expected to expand from 17.1mn to 17.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 54% and 16% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 56TWh in 2010 to 67TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a small supply surplus after power industry usage and system losses, assuming average annual growth (2010-2015) in electricity generation of 4.0%.
Between 2010 and 2020, an increase in Chilean electricity generation of 44.2% is forecast, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 19.9% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 20.3% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to fall from 25.2% in 2010-2015 to 19.0%, representing 49.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 18% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 31% between 2010 and 2020. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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