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Colombia Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 48
The Colombia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's power industry.
In this updated report, BMI forecasts that Colombia will account for 5.01% of Latin American regional power generation by 2015, with a slight generation surplus after system losses that may still require imports on occasion, particularly if drought conditions impact the vital hydro-power segment. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,209 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.13% over the previous year. A rise in regional generation to 1,432TWh by 2015 is forecast, representing an increase of 18.4% during 2010-2015.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 447TWh, accounting for 37.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 496TWh, implying 11.0% growth during 2010-2015, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.6% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Colombia’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated at 13.7TWh, or 3.07% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 3.37% of thermal generation.
For Colombia, hydro is the dominant energy source, accounting for an estimated 30.9% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 28.8%, gas at 26.1% and coal with a 10.6% share of PED.
Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 780mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 18.6% growth during 2010-2015. Colombia’s estimated 2010 market share of 4.72% is set to rise to 4.88% by 2015. The country’s estimated 42.5TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 47.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the Latin America hydro market falling from an estimated 6.45% to 6.23%.
Colombia is now ranked second just ahead of Chile and behind only Brazil in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its use of renewable (mostly hydro-power) energy and relatively low energy import dependency. Regulatory issues and privatisation progress beat the regional average, but country risk factors offset some of the industry strength. Over the next several quarters, the country is likely to compete with Chile, given the one-point gap between the two countries.
BMI is now forecasting Colombian average annual real GDP growth of 4.64% between 2010 and 2015, with an increase of 4.70% assumed for 2011. The population is expected to expand from 46.3mn to 49.3mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 46% and 18% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 45TWh in 2010 to 57TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a small supply surplus after power industry usage and system losses, but occasional power imports will be required if electricity generation grows at our forecast rate (2010-2015) of an average 4.2% per annum.
Between 2010 and 2020, an increase in Colombian electricity generation of 45.5% is forecast, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 17.5% in the 2015-2020 period, down from 23.8% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 22.8% in 2010-2015 to 18.2% in 2015- 2020, representing 45.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 22% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 58% between 2010 and 2020. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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