Saudi Arabia Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 51
Saudi Arabia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabia's power industry.
The new Saudi Arabia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 16.80% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2015, with a balanced market after system losses if there is sufficient additional investment in capacity. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 90.8% – thanks in part to environmental concerns which have led to the promotion of renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Saudi Arabia’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 213TWh, or 18.69% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 18.51% of thermal generation.
Oil will have been the dominant fuel for Saudi Arabia in 2010, accounting for an estimated 65% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 35%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. Saudi Arabia’s estimated 2010 market share of 21.64% is set to ease to 21.08% by 2015.
Saudi Arabia now shares sixth place with Nigeria in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Rating, in spite of its considerable market size, low level of energy import dependency and particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is not competitive, with little progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Saudi Arabia is just one point behind Kenya, so has the long-term potential to catch the African state.
BMI is now forecasting real GDP growth averaging 3.15% per annum between 2010 and 2015, with the 2011 growth assumption being 2.50%. The population is expected to expand from 26.0mn to 28.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to rise by 25% and 9% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 176TWh in 2010 to 211TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a balanced market after system losses etc, assuming 3.6% average annual growth (2010-2015) in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Saudi electricity generation of 56.2%, which is near the middle of the range for the MEA region. This equates to 30.5% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 19.7% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to increase from 17.6% in 2010-2015 to 22.5%, representing 44.1% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 56% between 2010 and 2020. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Saudi Arabia Power Business Environment SWOT
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
Global
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015
Middle East And Africa Region
Table: Middle East And Africa Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Table: Middle East And Africa Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Market Overview – Saudi Arabia
Primary Energy Demand
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Power Transmission
Business Environment
Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Power Business Environment Rating
Overview Of Saudi Arabia’s Power Rating
Rewards
Risks
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Saudi Arabia’s Power Outlook
Generation
Gas-Fired
Oil-Fired
Coal-Fired
Nuclear Energy
Hydro-Electric
Renewable Energy
Power Costs
Transmission
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Power Sector, 2008-2015
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Thermal Power, 2008-2015
Table: Saudi Arabia’s Power Costs, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
Assumptions And Methodology
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Saudi Arabia – Economic Activity
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Snapshot
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020
Regional Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Saudi Arabia Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Power Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
- Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)
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