United Arab Emirates Tourism Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 70
The United Arab Emirates Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Arab Emirates's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview Following negative growth in foreign visitor arrivals in 2009 there appears to have been a favourable recovery in the UAE tourism sector in 2010. In Abu Dhabi, the most recent figures, for January-October 2010, show a strong recovery in tourist numbers, with an increase of 16% year-on-year (y-o-y) to nearly 1.5mn visitors. October was one of the best months of the year, with growth in guest numbers of 18% yo- y. Over the 10-month period, growth was strong for domestic and foreign tourism at 15% and 17% y-oy respectively. After a rebound of nearly 11% y-o-y in the number of tourists staying in Sharjah’s hotels and apartments in H110, growth slowed to less than 5% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2010 to 1.10mn arrivals. Since figures were published for H110, which showed the total number of hotel guests up by 9% y-o-y, Dubai has released no new tourism data.
Hospitality Data for the first 10 months of 2010 for Abu Dhabi show a robust increase in guest nights of 15% y-o-y to around 4.1mn. The number of guests from the UK, the largest source market, rose by a buoyant 18% yo- y, while arrivals from the US increased by a substantial 35% y-o-y. Russian tourist arrivals were also up by a strong 13% y-o-y. Occupancy rates declined markedly, however, by 16% y-o-y to 63%, which was partly due to the growth of accommodation facilities in the emirate. In Sharjah, there was a slight moderation in growth over the year, with data for January-September 2010 showing that the total number of occupied room nights in hotels increased to 1,126,396, representing 5.7% y-o-y growth. The overall occupancy rate was 70%, up from 65% in the first nine months of the previous year.
Forecast Scenario Based on more recent data that show slightly weaker growth in foreign arrivals we have revised down our annual growth estimate for 2010, but it remains relatively favourable at about 7% (although coming from a low base in 2009). Growth in arrivals is forecast to pick up slightly in 2011 to 8%. These forecasts are based on economic recovery in major source markets, particularly the eurozone, the UK and the Middle East. For the eurozone, our revised growth projections stand at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. As regards the UK, a major source of tourists, our forecasts have been adjusted, with economic growth predicted of 1.5% and 2.0% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Acceleration in economic growth in key source markets is anticipated in 2012.
Airlines In the results for the first six months of the financial year ending September 30 2010, the Dubai-based Emirates airline recorded a net profit of AED3.4bn (US$925mn). This was a considerable improvement on net profit of AED752mn (US$205mn) during the same period in 2009. Passenger traffic increased 17.3% y-o-y to 15.5mn passengers. A code-share agreement between the flag carrier of Abu Dhabi, Etihad Airways, and Air Malta came into effect in October 2010. In 2011, Etihad Airways is starting flights to its eighth destination in India, Bangalore. In Q310, Sharjah-based Air Arabia served 1.15mn passengers, a strong increase of 14% y-o-y. In December, the airline launched services from Sharjah to Sohag in Egypt and the Afghan capital Kabul.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
UAE Tourism SWOT
UAE Political SWOT
UAE Economic SWOT
UAE Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2014
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2015
Expenditure
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015
Market Overview – Travel
Airports
Commercial Airlines
Table: Key Players – UAE Commercial Airlines, 2009 (unless stated)
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Products Price Assumptions, 2010 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation Developments
Table: Selected Accommodation Projects In The UAE
Regional Case Study: Accor
Tourism Infrastructure
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence and Security Report 2011 And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
The UAE’s Security Risks
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Middle East And Africa Security Overview
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2014
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
Table: BMI And Consensus Forecasts, 2010-2011 (%)
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2009-2012 (%)
Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth, 2009-2012 (%)
Company Profiles
Emirates
Etihad Airways
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Ratings Methodology
Sources
- Emirates
- Etihad Airways
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