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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, January 2011, Pages: 88
The Uganda Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uganda's defence and security industry.
In 2010, BMI estimates that Uganda’s defence spending totalled US$450mn, up 37.21% from US$328mn in 2009. Per capita spending is still very low by global standards, at US$13.30. Defence expenditure was equal to 2.3% of GDP, a normal level for developed countries but quite low compared to some other African countries. Defence accounted for 12.9% of government spending, high by developed country standards, if not those of emerging markets in unstable regions. Therefore the expenditure reflects the small size and moderate level of development of the Ugandan economy, as well as the country’s military commitments.
In 2011, BMI expects defence spending to grow more slowly in nominal dollar terms, growing 4.72% to US$471mn, or US$13.50 per capita. In constant price terms, this represents a drop of 3%, though as a proportion of government expenditure, defence will rise to 13.4%.
Over the forecast period, as Uganda’s economy grows, and with regional risks and Uganda’s position as a military power in the region increasing, BMI expects defence spending to rise rapidly, peaking at 36.52% growth in 2014 in nominal dollar terms.
Uganda is therefore likely to follow the trend seen across Africa of heavy investment in military capacity over the coming years, with defence a major government priority. The wave of investment will taper down in the second half of this decade as the army takes delivery of new equipment, but growth will still remain relatively high. By 2019, we expect defence expenditure to total US$2.150bn, or US$47.89 per head – still low by rich country standards, and remaining at 2.3% of GDP, but accounting for a huge 23.6% of government spending.
In December 2010, more than 1,800 Ugandan troops were due to be deployed to Somalia after they had completed training in central Uganda, replacing a battle group currently in Uganda's troubled neighbour state. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has said that the army is playing an important role in bring stability to Somalia. The last months of December saw Ugandan troops as a part of the AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) drive back Islamist fighters of the Shabab militia from the centre of the Somali capital, Mogadishu.
Gen Aronda Nyakairima, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces said that Ugandan troops are now able to participate in international peacekeeping missions, a signal of intent that the country, while still relatively poor, is ready to make its presence felt internationally, including theatres outside East Africa. Kampala has shown itself to be increasingly willing to step in to protect its interests and fight militants. Its armed forces, having had a considerable amount of success against the LRA, can be considered among East Africa’s strongest.
Internally, tensions have been rising in the run-up to 2011 elections. Some fear the army could intervene in the polls, and even that the military sees itself as ‘an extension of the ruling party’ due to the latter’s militaristic policies. Therefore concerns have been raised that the army could intervene on the government’s side in a disputed election, which could potentially lead to an escalation in violence and damage Uganda’s international reputation. After Kenya’s troubled 2007 election, there are serious concerns about the potential for political violence in Uganda, as an entrenched government faces a fractious and frustrated opposition.
Uganda Security SWOT
Uganda Political SWOT
Uganda Economic SWOT
Uganda Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Table: Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011
Latin America: More Of The Same
South Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
Global Cyber Security Outlook
Regional Focus – Somalia
Other Challenges And Threats To Somalia's Stability
A Tale Of Three Somalias
What Does The Future Hold?
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Uganda’s Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Africa City Terrorism Index
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Military Structure And Defence Industry
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Uganda’s Armed Forces, 2000-2007 (‘000 personnel)
Table: Uganda’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Table: Uganda – Maceroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
City Terrorism Rating
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