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Thailand Defence and Security Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 93
The Thailand Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's defence and security industry.
In December 2010, it appeared that the security situation in Thailand was improving. The six-month anniversary of the government’s crackdown on demonstrations by its ‘red shirt’ opponents in May passed with some demonstrations (as well as others by pro-royalist ‘yellow shirts’. However there was not widespread violence. On October 1 2010, the government lifted the state of emergency in three provinces (Khon Kaen, Udon Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima). However, a few days later, the government announced that the state of emergency in the remaining four provinces where it is in force (Bangkok, Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi and Pathum Thani) would be extended for another three months.
There are two reasons why we think that it is likely that the government will completely lift the state of emergency in 2011. The first is that the government appears to be gaining the upper hand in its efforts to control anti-government attacks. The second is that the Abhisit administration continues to face pressure from human rights groups, in the US and elsewhere, to lift the state of emergency. The removal of the state of emergency would pave the way for early elections, which could be held sometime in 2011.
Other security challenges facing the government – the insurgency in the southern provinces, tensions with Cambodia in relation to the Preah Vihear
temple, and refugees and smuggling across the border with Myanmar – remain substantial, but have neither worsened nor improved over recent months.
Although the arms procurement process remains opaque, inefficient and potentially vulnerable to delays as a result of economic or political issues, the Royal Thai Air Force remains on track to upgrade its fleet of fighters through the purchase of 12 Saab Gripens from Sweden. In November 2010, the RTAF signed an agreement with the FMV – the Swedish Defence and Security Report 2011 Materiel Administration, which is handling the deal, confirming its purchase of the second group of six Gripens.
In early 2009, it appear that the acquisition of the Gripens, along with Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft and associated equipment, might be delayed because of the sharp shortfall in government revenues following the global financial crisis. For the time being, we remain confident that Thailand’s economy will continue to grow steadily through 2011 and 2012.
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