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Taiwan Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 96
The Taiwan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q1 2011 update on Taiwan’s telecommunications market incorporates new operational and financial data from the country’s leading telecoms operators – Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile and FarEasTone for the end of Q310. This latest report also contains updated five-year forecasts predicting the development of the country’s fixed-line, broadband and mobile telephony sectors. These forecasts have also been extended through to the end of 2015.
BMI’s figures for Taiwan’s mobile subscriber base are based on data published by the three main mobile operators and the telecoms regulatory authority, the National Communications Commission (NCC). By the end of September 2010 we estimate Taiwan’s had 28.174mn mobile subscribers, reflecting an increase of 1.5% in Q310. Third-quarter growth ensured that mobile subscriber growth for the first nine months of 2010 was 3.4%. This was considerably lower than the 5.6% growth recorded for the same period in 2009. The latest data supports BMI’s view that rapid expansion in Taiwan’s mobile sector has given way to slower growth and high penetration rates. By the end of 2010 we estimate that there were nearly 28.5mn Taiwanese mobile customers, giving the country a penetration rate of 122.5%.
According to our updated mobile subscriber forecast, we expect a notable slowdown in growth during the five years to 2015. Meanwhile, we estimate Taiwan had more than 18.5mn 3G mobile subscribers at the end of 2010, up by 17.2% from 15.8mn subscribers in 2009. 3G growth is being fuelled by the migration of 2G customers served by Taiwan’s three largest mobile operators to 3G networks. Growth is also being stimulated by ongoing investments in 3G network infrastructure and service development.
Our new forecast for Taiwan’s fixed-line telephony market expects a slower rate of decline over the next few years. By the end of 2010 we estimate there were almost 12.7mn fixed lines in service, representing a penetration rate of 54.6%. Meanwhile, although we have extended our forecasts for the number of internet users and broadband subscribers to the end of 2015, these forecast figures remain generally unchanged. We estimate Taiwan had more than 22mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2010, equivalent to a penetration rate of 95%. One reason for the high penetration rate is the inclusion of mobile broadband customers in the total figure. Mobile broadband customers accounted for 74% of the total broadband customer base at the end of 2009, up from 68.2% at the end of 2008.
In October 2010 the Taiwanese Ministry of Economic Affairs approved a WiMAX development plan that will result in the government investing an estimated TWD6.6bn (US$215mn) in developing the country’s WiMAX infrastructure during the next three years. Recent evidence suggests WiMAX subscriber growth has been limited by existing licence restrictions, which stipulate each licence can only be used in one of three geographical areas of the island. In Q310 Taiwan’s WiMAX operators started providing roaming services, a development which could encourage stronger subscriber growth.
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