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Taiwan Autos Report Q1 2011
Description:
The Taiwan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's automotive industry.
New vehicle sales in Taiwan bounced back strongly in 2010, increasing over 17%% y-o-y, to 234,936 units, in the first 11 months of the year, according to estimates from the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Association. BMI believes that the surge was partly prompted by expansion in the Taiwanese economy, with private consumption remaining at the heart of its economic growth.
However, we anticipate this growth to slow down going into 2011 as strong correlation current property prices expected during the year will hit private wealth, thus reducing their impetus to spend. As such, we limit our sales forecast to 274,300 units by the end of the year, up a modest 5.4% y-o-y. This will be followed by periods of more robust growth during 2012-2015, when growth should average 11% y-o-y.
Auto production is likely to follow suit, as nearly 80% of the locally produced vehicles are sold on the domestic market. Carmakers produced just over 270,000 units during the first 11 months of 2010, marking a 38% y-o-y increase over the same period in 2009. Although, we expect vehicle production in Taiwan to remain firmly remain on a positive growth trajectory during the forecast period, slowdown in domestic consumption is likely to bring down this growth rate. For the rest of the forecast period, we expect carmakers to maintain an average production growth of close to 11% y-o-y between 2012 and 2015.
However, in future we envisage a slightly higher proportion of Taiwan’s production will be export oriented. In 2010, the trend received a boost from by Japanese brands looking to offset the strong yen by raising output and exports. Exports therefore swelled more than four times on a y-o-y basis, reaching 31,700 units during 11M10. Kortus, a subsidiary of Taiwan's Prince Motors and the local assembler and dealer for Chery Automobile, has already exported more than 30 units of the Chinese company's A3 model and the A1 to different markets in Asia in 2010.
Meanwhile, Taiwan and China's automotive sectors are increasingly engaging in joint projects, as the implementation of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement on January 1 2011 approaches. BMI believes the combination of Taiwan's high-tech supplier segment and the rapid growth of China's vehicle production will offer significant opportunities for both sides.
Thanks to such positive developments, Taiwan has climbed to 10th with 49.4 points in BMI’s Industry Risk-Reward Ratings. The country also receives an above-average rating for its regulatory environment, although we fear that links with the Chinese mainland may arouse concerns over IPRs.
New vehicle sales in Taiwan bounced back strongly in 2010, increasing over 17%% y-o-y, to 234,936 units, in the first 11 months of the year, according to estimates from the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Association. BMI believes that the surge was partly prompted by expansion in the Taiwanese economy, with private consumption remaining at the heart of its economic growth.
However, we anticipate this growth to slow down going into 2011 as strong correlation current property prices expected during the year will hit private wealth, thus reducing their impetus to spend. As such, we limit our sales forecast to 274,300 units by the end of the year, up a modest 5.4% y-o-y. This will be followed by periods of more robust growth during 2012-2015, when growth should average 11% y-o-y.
Auto production is likely to follow suit, as nearly 80% of the locally produced vehicles are sold on the domestic market. Carmakers produced just over 270,000 units during the first 11 months of 2010, marking a 38% y-o-y increase over the same period in 2009. Although, we expect vehicle production in Taiwan to remain firmly remain on a positive growth trajectory during the forecast period, slowdown in domestic consumption is likely to bring down this growth rate. For the rest of the forecast period, we expect carmakers to maintain an average production growth of close to 11% y-o-y between 2012 and 2015.
However, in future we envisage a slightly higher proportion of Taiwan’s production will be export oriented. In 2010, the trend received a boost from by Japanese brands looking to offset the strong yen by raising output and exports. Exports therefore swelled more than four times on a y-o-y basis, reaching 31,700 units during 11M10. Kortus, a subsidiary of Taiwan's Prince Motors and the local assembler and dealer for Chery Automobile, has already exported more than 30 units of the Chinese company's A3 model and the A1 to different markets in Asia in 2010.
Meanwhile, Taiwan and China's automotive sectors are increasingly engaging in joint projects, as the implementation of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement on January 1 2011 approaches. BMI believes the combination of Taiwan's high-tech supplier segment and the rapid growth of China's vehicle production will offer significant opportunities for both sides.
Thanks to such positive developments, Taiwan has climbed to 10th with 49.4 points in BMI’s Industry Risk-Reward Ratings. The country also receives an above-average rating for its regulatory environment, although we fear that links with the Chinese mainland may arouse concerns over IPRs.
Contents:
SWOT Analysis
Taiwan Autos Industry SWOT
Taiwan Political SWOT
Taiwan Economic SWOT
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Table: BMI Core Views On Global Auto Sector
Asia Pacific Regional Overview
Companies Prepare For Upsizing Trends
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Auto Industry Asia Pacific
Industry Forecast Scenario
Domestic Sales
Table: Taiwan Auto Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: Taiwan Auto Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: Taiwan Motorcycles Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Trade
Table: Taiwan Auto Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: Taiwan Auto Trade By Destination (TWD'000), 2009
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Taiwan – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Table: Taiwan – Vehicle Sales, Jan-Aug
Table: Taiwan – Vehicle Production, 2008-2009
Commercial Vehicle Segment
Table: Light Commercial Vehicles Sales (Units)
Table: Light Commercial Vehicle Production (units)
Heavy Commercial Vehicles
Table: Heavy Commercial Vehicles Sales (Units)
Table: Heavy Commercial Vehicles Production (units)
Company Monitor
Ford Asia Strategy Yields Record Results
Company Profiles
Kuozui (Toyota Motor)
China Motor Company (CMC)
Yulon Group
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
Taiwan Autos Industry SWOT
Taiwan Political SWOT
Taiwan Economic SWOT
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Table: BMI Core Views On Global Auto Sector
Asia Pacific Regional Overview
Companies Prepare For Upsizing Trends
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Business Environment Ratings – Auto Industry Asia Pacific
Industry Forecast Scenario
Domestic Sales
Table: Taiwan Auto Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: Taiwan Auto Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: Taiwan Motorcycles Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Trade
Table: Taiwan Auto Sector – Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Table: Taiwan Auto Trade By Destination (TWD'000), 2009
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Taiwan – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Table: Taiwan – Vehicle Sales, Jan-Aug
Table: Taiwan – Vehicle Production, 2008-2009
Commercial Vehicle Segment
Table: Light Commercial Vehicles Sales (Units)
Table: Light Commercial Vehicle Production (units)
Heavy Commercial Vehicles
Table: Heavy Commercial Vehicles Sales (Units)
Table: Heavy Commercial Vehicles Production (units)
Company Monitor
Ford Asia Strategy Yields Record Results
Company Profiles
Kuozui (Toyota Motor)
China Motor Company (CMC)
Yulon Group
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
Companies Mentioned
- Kuozui (Toyota Motor)
- China Motor Company (CMC)
- Yulon Group
- China Motor Company (CMC)
- Yulon Group
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