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Japan Petrochemicals Report 2011
Business Monitor International, Dec 2010, Pages: 63
Business Monitor International's Japan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's oil and gas industry.
The Japanese petrochemicals industry is set to complete its process of restructuring and consolidation by 2012 in order to meet the challenges posed by rapid growth in Middle Eastern and Asian capacities in commodity products, which should make producers more profitable and efficient, according to BMI’s latest Japan Petrochemicals Report.
The medium-term goal of Japanese chemical producers is to increase specialisation in supplying sectors such as the environment and energy sectors, in which Japan has a competitive edge. Producers that are more reliant on petrochemicals have been badly hit by sluggish domestic demand, which has been largely offset by export growth, particularly engineering plastics due to improved Asian car production growth. In the domestic market, the emphasis remains firmly on expansion of differentiated products such as functional resins and high-performance films, rather than commodities. Petrochemicals producers responded to recession with intensified efforts to rationalise commodity product lines and focus on automotive, electronics, environmental technology and other areas that play to the country’s technological strengths with commodity petrochemicals playing less of a role.
The main risks in 2011 include the slowdown in Chinese growth, the effects of credit restriction and unemployment on US demand, the gloomy outlook for the European market and the strength of the yen against the currencies of Japan’s main trading partners. At the same time, the shift in petrochemicals growth to the Middle East, particularly with the start-up of large-scale projects in Saudi Arabia, is leading to a saturation of the Asian market.
However, Japanese petrochemicals producers have had time to prepare for the challenge posed by the Middle East, using the downturn in the market to restructure their operations and focusing more on high performance products, the streamlining of product portfolios and the downsizing of operations in order to compete more effectively and profitably. Production of commodity petrochemicals such as PE, EG and styrene have been cut back as they are less able to compete with ethane-fed production in the Middle East. Instead, the focus has been on propylene-fed production, such as PP, as well as aromatics. There has also been an effort towards greater integration of ethylene plants with downstream production activities with producers linking their activities to enhance efficiency. Further upstream, there is likely to be a push for greater integration between petrochemical and refining operations in order to enhance cost effectiveness.
Japanese ethylene production will never return to pre-recession levels, but that does not mean Japan’s petrochemicals industry is dying – instead it is continuing its process of reform, which should be completed by 2012. Indeed, cuts are necessary, but the process of consolidation and building alliances within the sector is complicated by the integration of cracker units with downstream production. By 2015, BMI believes ethylene production capacity will have been cut by at least 2.76mn tpa from 2008 levels to 6mn tpa, although this should be partly offset by a 1mn tpa rise in propylene capacity to 7.25mn tpa. Further downstream, the most vulnerable area for reduced capacity is LDPE, which is rapidly being replaced by other lighter weight and more versatile thermoplastics. LDPE capacity is set to fall by over a half to 600,000tpa, leading to an 18% reduction in PE capacity to 2.94mn tpa. Given the problem of overcapacity in China, the Japanese PVC sector is set for a 10% decline in capacity to 1.9mn tpa. Many of these closures should be completed by 2012.
Japan is at the top of BMI’s Petrochemicals Business Environment Ranking for Asia with 79.6 points, down 0.6 points from the previous year due to a forecast decline in capacity and deterioration in country risk scores. Although it is 1.1 points ahead of China in terms of its overall petrochemical rating, it is falling behind China in terms of the size of its petrochemical industry. Nevertheless, it has a regulatory structure that is conducive to investment and risks to realisation have improved. The key problems for Japan are the cost of production and a slowdown in key market, but the country retains major advantages, particularly in research and development, and consolidation has helped streamline and improve efficiency and integration within the industry.
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