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Turkey Tourism Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Jan 2011, Pages: 61
The Turkey Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
Following a sharp slowdown in growth of foreign visitor arrivals in 2009, to an estimated 4% year-on-year (y-o-y), the latest official provisional data, for the first 10 months of 2010, show a reasonable increase in visitor arrivals of 6.3% y-o-y. After very strong growth in March and May, of 17% and 16% respectively, growth was flat in July and negative in August – the two most important months for tourism in Turkey – but picked up favourably in September and October, compared to the same months in 2009.
Hospitality
After very poor figures for the hospitality sector in Q110 (total room nights were down by 17% y-o-y) and a recovery in the following quarter (nights up by 6.5% y-o-y), the data for Q310 show broadly flat growth for the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights, which totalled nearly 135mn. Foreign tourist room nights, which accounted for almost 72% of the total, were up by 2.2% y-o-y, while room nights by domestic tourists fell by over 4% y-o-y.
Bomb Attacks Continue
Turkey was hit by a wave of fatal bomb attacks in 2010, two in Istanbul in mid-2010, one in September in south-east Turkey and another in Istanbul in October. The most recent attack was a suicide bombing on October 31 2010 that injured 32 people, including 10 police officers. The blast was near the Monument of the Republic in Taksim Square in the centre of Istanbul. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons later claimed responsibility for the attack.
Forecast Scenario
The forecast of 6% annual growth in foreign arrivals to Turkey in 2010 remains unchanged this quarter, with growth expected to edge up over the short term. The basis of these forecasts is economic recovery in Turkey’s major source markets, including the Eurozone, Russia and the UK. In regards to the Eurozone, the growth forecasts stand at 1.6% for 2010 and 1.5% for 2011, with German growth at 3.2% and 1.9% over the same period. Ssolid economic growth of over 4% is forecast in Russia in 2010 and 2011. A factor likely to constrain growth in foreign tourism though is BMI’s forecast of an appreciation trend for the Turkish lira against the euro and the US dollar over the next few years. The lira is anticipated at TRY1.4000/US$ and TRY1.8000/EUR at the end of 2011 and TRY1.2000/US$ and TRY1.5500/EUR by the end of 2012.
Istanbul Atatürk Airport
In the wake of 2009’s modest annual growth of 4% in total passenger traffic at Istanbul Atatürk Airport, there was a relatively strong recovery in growth in international traffic in the first eight months of 2010 of 11% y-o-y.
Turkish Airlines
Turkish Airlines (THY)’s preliminary results for the first nine months of 2010 show an operating profit of TRY528mn (US$352mn), down by 18% y-o-y. Net profit almost halved to TRY256mn (US$171mn). Sales revenue, however, increased by over 22% y-o-y to TRY6.28bn (US$4.2bn). Growth in the number of passengers in January-October 2010 was impressive, up by over 17% y-o-y to more than 24.5mn. The numbers of international business class passengers and international transit passengers increased by 29.6% and 17.6% y-o-y respectively. In winter 2010/11, THY started operating a new route, Istanbul- Washington-Atlanta-Washington-Istanbul, closed the Ankara-Denizli route and started domestic flights between Sabiha Gökçen and Sivas.
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