|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Korean Mobile Market Forecast and Carrier Strategy 2006-2010, Full Year 2006
ROA Holdings, July 2007, Pages: 94
Korean Mobile Market Forecast and Carrier Strategy is a regular report published by ROA Holdings, focusing on the latest developments and carrier strategies in the Korean mobile market.
Executive Summary
Market Forecast (2006-2010)
The number of mobile subscribers in South Korea was 40.19 million as of the end of December 2006. The South Korean mobile market, which has reached a peak point, is mainly driven by replacement sales. The publisher projects that from 2006 it will grow at an annual growth rate of 0.86%. As a result, the number of mobile subscribers will reach 41.95 million by 2010 which is 85 % of the total population in South Korea.
In 2006, the market shares of the three major mobile carriers, SKT, KTF and LGT are almost similar compared to the figures recorded at the end of 2005 . SKT maintains the largest share by occupying 51%, and is followed by KTF with 32% and LGT with 17%. The prepaid service users, who are estimated at 0.33 million in 2006, will edge up to 0.35 million to account for only 1% out of the total mobile users by 2010. The publisher expects that the prepaid handset sales will not increase greatly because the mobile carriers are concentrating on improving their data ARPU, seeing mobile data services as a new income source at a time when the voice communications market is being saturated.
The number of CDMA 1X subscribers has been decreasing since 2002 when EV-DO service was introduced. CDMA EV-DO subscribers reached a record-high of 15.34 million in 2006 and will start decreasing in 2007. On the other hand, WCDMA recorded a disappointing 0.166 million subscribers in 2006. But solid growth is expected in the near future, thanks to the introduction of new handsets, a variety of mobile contents, aggressive marketing and attractive tariff plans. WCDMA will secure 23.05 million users (including HSDPA/HSUPA and EV-DO Rev.A) by 2010. In the long term, EV-DO users will migrate to WCDMA (or HSDPA).
Mobile churn rate in South Korea was 2.41% in 2006, slightly increased from 2004, and will record 2.20% by 2010. Overall ARPU was KRW 41,075 and data ARPU was KRW 8,501 in 2006. If South Korea’s mobile market maintains the current pace, the overall ARPU will increase to KRW 42,478 and data ARPU will be KRW 12,144 in 2010. Data service subscribers in South Korea will grow at an average annual rate of 1.53%. Consequently, all mobile subscribers will become mobile data users by 2010. In 2006, about 96.8% of mobile subscribers were data service users.
Overall industry sales in 2006 are assumed at KRW 21.1 trillion. It will grow at an average rate of 2.28%, so as to increase to KRW 23.6 trillion in 2010. Mobile data sales will increase by 9.69% a year from KRW 3.7 trillion in 2006 to KRW 5.9 trillion in 2010. In line with the increases in sales, the market share of data services will increase remarkably to obtain 25 .2% out of the total sales of the industry.
In 2006, South Korea’s mobile CAPEX recorded KRW 3.1 trillion and will decline to KRW 2.4 trillion by 2010.
|
|
|
|
