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Japanese Mobile Market Forecast 2003-2010, First Half 2006
ROA Holdings, Sep 2006, Pages: 80
This report presents the latest service convergence trends in Japan. For this report, ROA Holdings has adopted an independent methodology for evaluating the penetration level and the future direction of mobile convergence. For identifying convergence service evolution trends and the most notable convergence services in Japan, ROA Holdings defines the convergence service structure (Convergence Service Structure Definition), maps the structure with the existing convergence services and markets (Japanese Market Structure Analysis), and then analyzes the penetration level of the services as well as vectors behind the evolution of the services (Mini Values and Mini Forces).
The report provides an in-depth analysis on each market, such as One Phone, One Billing, SMS, MMS, Email, IM, PTT, Content Download/Streaming, Mobile Broadcasting, Mobile Portal/Community, Mobile Advertising, LBS, Personal Tool/Storage, Mobile Mall and Mobile Auction, Mobile Banking and Mobile Trading, On Chip Banking, and On Chip Credit Service or Payment.
Executive Summary
In the first half of 2006 (from January to June), Japanese mobile operators focused on enriching their handset line-ups as market competition intensified in the face of a strategic alliance between mobile operators TU-KA and au, and the upcoming introduction of Mobile Number Portability (MNP). In particular, NTT DoCoMo and au, which enjoyed dominant positions in the market as the first and second largest mobile operators, respectively, grappled with rising challenges from competitors in order to retain their users. In March 2006, Softbank, having received a mobile business license from the government, took over Vodafone, heralding another large change in the landscape of Japan’s mobile market. Softbank is poised to introduce mobile services through Vodafone in October of this year with the launch of MNP in Japan. Such drastic changes in the Japanese mobile market in 2006 created a new turning point in the development of the industry.
According to The publisher, the total number of mobile subscribers will reach 96.6 million, with a penetration rate of 75.6% by the end of FY 2006 (ending March 2007 in Japan). The publisher forecasts that the number of Japanese mobile subscribers will record 4.03% in terms of CAGR from 2003 to 2010 and reach 107.9 million by the end of 2010, taking into account various changes in the Japanese mobile market.
Currently, the Japanese mobile market is driven by several factors. For example, since 2005, easy-to- use mobile handsets with limited features have been released, targeted at seniors, and in late 2005 and early 2006, handsets with designs and GPS functions suited to children gained in popularity. Additionally, NTT DoCoMo and au successfully appealed to new customer groups while promoting family subscriptions, and handsets and tariff plans tailored to business users were introduced in 2006.
At the same time, Willcom, a PHS (Personal Handyphone System) operator, has continued to perform robustly in 2006, following similar results in 2005. After reaching a peak in April 2002, PHS began to decline and the ser vice held a weak position in the market delivering services to niche and data card users. However, in February 2005, Willcom debuted and put vigorous efforts into increasing the number of Japanese PHS users to 4 million by June 2006. Now, more and more users are utilizing Willcom handsets as second handsets, as Willcom has implemented attractive flat rate services for both voice and data communications, and smartphone type handsets. In considering that Willcom is likely to continue its strong performances and that PHS will remain immune from the ripple effects of the upcoming introduction of MNP scheduled for the autumn of 2006, PHS services are expected to influence future trends in the Japanese mobile market.
Research Methodology
For this report, The publisher conducted primary and secondary research on the mobile operators (including newcomers) in Japan as well as used its own research methodologies to forecast the
developments in the Japanese mobile market from 2006 to 2010.
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