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Korean Mobile Market Forecast and Carrier Strategy 2003-2008
ROA Holdings, Jan 2006, Pages: 69
Korean Mobile Market Forecast and Carrier Strategy is a regular report published by ROA Holdings, focusing on the latest developments and carrier strategies in the Korean mobile market.
Executive Summary
Market Forecast (2003-2008)
According to The publisher, the number of mobile subscribers in South Korea is expected to reach 38.25 million by the end of December 2005. Forecasted CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) after 2005 is immaterially 1.49%. Considering this trend, the number of mobile subscribers by 2008 in Korea will reach 39.4 million, which is 80.13% penetration rate of the total population in South Korea.
Meanwhile, the market shares of the three mobile carriers (SKT 51%, KTF 32%, LGT 17%) are not expected to change significantly from the year-end level of 2004. The number of prepaid subscribers is expected to reach 532,000 in 2005 and will decrease to 171,000 by 2008 since mobile carriers are more likely to involve in gaining higher data service ARPU than concentrating on prepaid subscribers in this saturated voice based market.
By maintaining a low CAGR of 1.7%, starting from 2005, the number of CDMA1X/EVDO and EVDV subscribers will reach 37.19 million by 2007. In the event of commercialization of WCDMA service in 2005, the forecasted subscribers will increase from 250,000 in 2005 to 3.96 million in 2008. In the long-term perspective, due to the introduction of WCDMA (or HSDPA), there is a high possibility that the current EVDO subscribers will migrate to WCDMA (or HSDPA). For the current CDMA IS95A/B subscribers, all of them will migrate to other network and the number of subscribers will hit zero.
Since MNP (Mobile Number Portability) is fully opened to the mobile carriers in 2005, the average churn rate of the three mobile carriers is expected to be 1.96%, a little bit lower than 2004, and the forecasted churn rate for 2008 will drop to 1.5%.
Based on the 2005 figures, the expected overall ARPU of the Korean mobile market by 2008 is 43,882 KRW and data ARPU will be 12,009 KRW. For data subscribers, the market grows at CAGR of 2.39% and all subscribers are expected to use data service by 2008. (As of first half of 2005, approximately 96.6% of all mobile subscribers use data service.)
The forecasted total revenue of Korean mobile market in 2005 is 20.6 trillion KRW and this market is expected to reach 25.8 trillion KRW, with CAGR of 6.67%. Meanwhile, data revenue will grow from 3.1 trillion KRW in 2005, with CAGR of 13.70%, to 5.3 trillion KRW by 2008.
Expected CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) of the Korean mobile market is 2.8 trillion KRW in 2005 and reach 2.9 trillion KRW by 2008.
1) Supplied Market Data (2000-2008)
Demographics (2000-2008)
-Population
-Nominal GDP
-Nominal GDP per capita
-Consumer Price Inflation
-Exchange Rate
Mobile Subscribers by Network Operator (2000-2008)
-SKT
-KTF
-LGT
-Total
Mobile Subscribers by Type of Package (2000-2008)
-Prepaid
-Postpaid
Mobile Penetration (2000-2008)
Mobile Subscribers by Technology & Generation (2000-2008)
-CDMA IS95A/B
-CDMA1X/EVDO/EVDV
-WCDMA
Churn Rate
ARPU (2000-2008)
-Overall ARPU
-Total Revenues
Voice & Data Market Segmentation (2000-2008)
-Voice Subscribers
-Voice ARPU
-Voice Revenues
-Data Subscribers
-Data ARPU
-Data Revenues
CAPEX (2000-2008)
-Total Capex
-CDMA IS95A/B
-CDMA1X/EV-DO/EV-DV
-WCDMA/HSDPA
-Others (Backbone/R&D, IT, etc.)
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