Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 96
Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The outlook for pharmaceutical companies targeting the Bulgarian drug market is deteriorating. A lack of political expediency has led to severe delays in the implementation of health sector reforms. On top of government medical service expenditure cuts, the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) and the Ministry of Health have failed to clear payments owed to hospitals.
For the Q111 update of BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs), Bulgaria continues to rank in the lower half of the index with a score of 47.3 out of 100, which places the country 13th of the 20 markets surveyed in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region.
BMI forecasts that Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market will increase from BGN1.75bn (US$1.27bn) in 2009 to BGN1.87bn (US$1.32bn) in 2010. Between 2009 and 2014, BMI projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.80% in local currency terms and 4.11% in US dollar terms.
Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market growth remains susceptible to shocks from domestic funding problems. While revenues for medical services are set to improve in the near term, accumulated healthcare and hospital debts generated over the last few years will have to be cleared, prolonging funding shortages.
In 2009 and 2010, the Bulgarian government failed to effectively manage the country’s healthcare budget. Overly optimistic projections for public healthcare expenditure in the proposed 2011 budget creates further uncertainty for BMI’s pharmaceutical, medical device and healthcare expenditure forecasts. In October 2010, the selection of the new Health Minister, Stefan Konstantinov, a strong advocate of healthcare reform, may give this critical issue some much-needed impetus.
The latest macroeconomic data indicates that a recovery is underway in Bulgaria, but domestic demand remains weak. The data from the National Statistical Institute has shown a second consecutive month of slowing decline. Having plunged by 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q409, real GDP contracted by 3.6% in Q110 and just 1.4% in the second quarter. On the back of data for the first half of the year, we forecast the economy to contract by 1.6% this year, with positive growth of 2.6% pencilled in for 2011. However, BMI highlights the risk stemming from public finances should the government fail to keep a lid on the fiscal deficit.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Q111
Rewards
Risks
Bulgaria – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Recent Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Environment
Corruption and Counterfeit Drugs
Pricing Regime
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups
Table: Retail Mark-Ups
Reimbursement Regime
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population
Table: Disease Burden In CEE
Non-Communicable Diseases
Communicable Diseases
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Financing
National Healthcare Plan
Healthcare Insurance
Hospital Privatisation Programme
Introduction Of Patient E-Cards
Medical Devices
Table: Classification Of Medical Devices In The EU
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2006-2014
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2006-2014
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2006 -2014
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2006 -2014
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria – Economic Activity
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2006-2014
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2006-2014
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2006-2014
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2006-2014
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2006-2014
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Export & Import Indicators 2006-2014
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Industry
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Companies By Sales
Local Pharmaceutical Sector
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
Wholesale Sector
Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale and Retail Market in Bulgaria
Retail Sector
Research And Development
Clinical Trials
Company Monitor
Local Companies
Sopharma
Biovet
Actavis Bulgaria (formerly Balkanpharma)
Foreign Companies
GlaxoSmithKline
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Pfizer
Merck & Co
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
- Sopharma
- Biovet
- Actavis Bulgaria (formerly Balkanpharma)
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Novartis
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Pfizer
- Merck & Co
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