Estonia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, February 2011, Pages: 79
Business Monitor International's Estonia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Estonia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The economies of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia were among the worst hit in Europe during the global economic crisis of 2007-2010 and the region's drug markets have not been immune to the performance of the wider economy. Despite stronger than expected pharmaceutical sales during the first nine months of 2010, BMI's projection that Estonia will post only marginal growth in 2010 has now been confirmed. The market is expected to return 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for the full year, reaching a value of EUR233mn (US$309mn).
The key drawback to investment in Estonia's drug market is its small size and moderate-to-weak outlook for growth. However, compared to its Baltic peers, Estonia’s drug market expenditure per capita is relatively high at US$231 in 2010, compared to Latvia’s US$200 and Lithuania’s US$180. In addition, the market is projected to achieve higher growth rates than both of its Baltic neighbours over the next five years.
The attractiveness of Estonia’s drug market is reflected in BMI’s Q211 Pharmaceutical & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs). The country’s overall BE rating is 51.9, ranking it 11th in the region and above the average for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) markets.
Estonia's pharmaceutical market expenditure forecast for 2011 is EUR242bn (US$327mn), experiencing y-o-y growth of 4.2% in local currency terms and 5.8% in US dollar terms. By 2015, Estonia's drug market expenditure is expected to reach EUR292mn (US$365mn). Over our five-year forecast period, BMI projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.63% in local currency terms and 3.34% in US dollar terms. On January 1 2011, Estonia became the 17th member of the European Monetary Union, abandoning the kroon in favour of the euro. With the kroon having been pegged to the euro since 1999 and the economy already maintaining a high degree of trade and investment integration with the eurozone, we maintain that euro adoption will primarily formalise existing macroeconomic linkages. As such, the direct impact on Estonian growth and investment is expected to be limited.
To facilitate currency conversions, unless otherwise stated, all figures in Estonia’s Q211 Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report have now been converted into euros. Some historic figures are shown in the Estonian kroon, but have been converted into the new currency as well as in US dollar terms.
Latest data confirm that the macroeconomic recovery in Estonia is gaining pace as expected, though we hold to our core view that economic growth will stagnate just below 2.5% in 2011 and 2012. Domestic demand conditions will remain weak for the foreseeable future as the housing, labour and credit markets remain mired in continued deleveraging. We highlight that euro entry will be an important factor bolstering foreign investor sentiment, though this will only mitigate the larger trends of stagnant private consumption and gross fixed capital formation growth.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Estonia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Estonia Political SWOT
Estonia Economic SWOT
Estonia Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings, Q211
Rewards
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Risks
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Estonia - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Intellectual Property Regime
Parallel Importing
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Table: Pharmaceuticals Reimbursed to the Insured (EEK ‘000)
Industry Developments
Epidemiology
Table: Disease Burden In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Reforms
Healthcare Provision
Healthcare Funding
Table: Main Indicators of HIF’s Finances
Healthcare Insurance Report Q2 2011
Table: Diagnoses with the Highest Expenditure of Benefits of Medicinal Products
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Table: Estonia - Economic Activity, 2006-2015
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2006-2015
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Export & Import Indicators 2007-2015
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Industry
Foreign Pharmaceutical Players
Company Developments
Biotechnology
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
Pharmaceutical Retail
Table: Pharmacies And Pharmacy Market Ratios, 2004-2009
Company Monitor
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Pfizer
Novartis
Sanofi-Aventis
Merck & Co
Grindeks (includes Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
Country Snapshot: Estonia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2004
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Pfizer
- Novartis
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Merck & Co
- Grindeks (includes Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
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