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Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, Feb 2011, Pages: 58
The Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's food and drink industry.
BMI Industry View Although the Kazakh banking sector recently suffered a crisis, the situation has now been resolved through the successful debt restructurings of the country's most troubled banks. While asset growth will remain subdued over the coming years, individual banks are beginning to target new sectors for loan growth in order to avoid overexposure to specific industries. For example, Temirbank recently stated that it wishes to expand its loan portfolio to small- and medium-sized businesses, while Alliance Bank aims to have the retail sector account for more than 50% of new loans issued in 2011. This, in addition to the expected solid economic performance, should prop up the consumer outlook for the country.
Headline Industry Data (local currency) 2011 per capita food consumption = +7.8%, forecast to 2015 = +48.6%
2011 alcoholic drinks sales = +7.8%; forecast to 2015 = +56.2% 2011 soft drinks sales = +7.7%; forecast to 2015 = +58.1%
Key Company Trends Position-Strengthening Consolidation in the Beer Industry - In August 2010, Dutch firm Carlsberg's key subsidiary Baltika-Almaty merged with Derbes from Kazakhstan, as part of the multinational brewer's plans to integrate companies in its group. This should provide Carlsberg with a stronger platform to take advantage of rapidly rising demand for beer in Kazakhstan. As a consumer goods market and more specifically as a market for beer, it carries significant promise. According to Carlsberg, the Kazakh beer market has grown by 100% since 1999, with future growth likely to be driven by the currently low per capita consumption levels, rising disposable incomes, growing multinational interest, as well as growing population numbers and increased penetration of modern retail channels.
Key Risks to Outlook Economic Outlook - We maintaining a long-term favourable outlook for the economy of Kazakhstan. This view is upheld by the now brighter outlook for the global economy than had been forecast previously. However, we also caution that the risks are on the downside. For one, much will depend on the government's ability to attract foreign investment, and investment into the right sectors, too. On the domestic front, while the banks are aiming to provide more credit facilities to the consumer, caution in discretionary spending is likely to continue being exercised, at least in the short term.
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