Philippines Telecommunications Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, February 2011, Pages: 107
The Philippines Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines's telecommunications industry.
In this quarter’s update for our Philippines Telecommunications Market report, we have revised several of our forecasts - namely the country’s mobile subscriber forecasts and our ARPU growth expectations - downwards after taking into account new data released by the Philippines mobile operators for the quarter ended September 2010.
At the end of September 2010, the Philippines mobile market grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to reach a total subscriber base of 84.635mn. The industry last saw a similar weak performance in June 2009 when the market contracted by 0.5% q-o-q. Globe Telecom and Digitel (Sun Cellular) reported positive net additions and performances that surpassed the previous quarter, but a net loss posted by mobile market leader Smart Communications resulted in the industry’s weak performance in Q310. The operator’s decline was led by a significant fall in Smart’s Red Mobile unit, which saw its prepaid subscriber base fall by 752,313 to reach 381,477 in September 2010. However, this was likely a result of an inactive subscriber deduction exercise by Smart after the operator previously introduced unlimited calling and texting promotions to attract consumers.
Meanwhile, operators’ ARPU levels continued to trend downwards as competition in the Philippines’ mobile industry intensified. Although Globe reported a higher mobile subscriber net addition than Smart, Globe’s blended ARPU fell by 7.6% to PHP159, with its postpaid ARPU dipping below the PHP1,200 mark to reach PHP1,168. By contrast, Smart’s postpaid ARPU held steady at PHP1,257. We do not expect a reversal in the ARPUs’ downtrend as operators have engaged in aggressive price competition even in the 3G sector in order to grab market share. We envisage the industry’s average ARPU to fall below PHP150 in 2011, but expect the decline to decelerate in the next five years as market conditions stabilise and operators introduce value-added services to boost their profitability.
That said, Smart and Globe continued to report strong growth in their broadband business segment. Total broadband subscribers for the two operators crossed the 2mn and 1mn mark respectively, and wireless broadband take-up is the main subscriber growth driver for Smart and Globe. BMI expects the highgrowth momentum to continue in the next five years as the industry is in its infancy unlike the other telecoms sector in the Philippines.
The Philippines rose to 11th place in BMI’s latest Business Environment Ratings as the country’s booming broadband industry offset the weak performance in the mobile sector and operators’ ARPU levels. While the broadband industry presents significant potential for investors, we believe that President Benigno Aquino III's war against corruption will be a long one, negatively affecting investor confidence in the country.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Philippines Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Industry SWOT
Philippines Mobile Industry SWOT
Philippines Political SWOT
Philippines Economic SWOT
Philippines Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Rankings
Asia
Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Rankings
The Philippines
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
ARPU
Table: Smart Communications and Globe Telecom ARPU And Subscriber Mix figures, 2007-2015
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Market Overview
Table: Philippines Wireless Net Additions, Q310
Table: Leading Mobile Operators’ Prepaid Vs Postpaid Net ARPU (PHP), Q309-Q310
3G
Smart Communications
Globe Telecom
Digitel (Sun Cellular)
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2010
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
SMS
Mobile TV
Mobile Money
Mobile Banking
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2010
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Country Mobile Data Philippines
Table: Smart Communications (PLDT)
Table: Globe Telecom
Table: Sun Cellular (Digitel Mobile)
Fixed Line
PLDT
Table: PLDT Fixed-Line Revenue Breakdown, 9M09 Vs 9M10 (PHPmn)
Digitel
BayanTel
Innove Communications
Eastern Communications
Broadband
Table: A Comparison Of Major Broadband Operator Subscriber Figures, 9M09 Vs 9M10 (mn)
PLDT
Innove
BayanTel
Mobile Broadband Services
WiMAX
Submarine Cables
ePLDT
Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010
Regulatory Environment And Industry Development
Philippines: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
3G Licensing
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players - Philippines Telecoms Sector
Table: Philippines Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2003-2009
Company Monitor
Alcatel-Lucent
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Service Type (Earn)
Table: Alcatel-Lucent’s Selected Major Contracts In Asia
Operator Profiles
Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT)
Smart Communications
Globe Telecom
Digital Telecommunications Philippines Inc (Digitel)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- 3G
- Smart Communications
- Globe Telecom
- Digitel (Sun Cellular)
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Digitel
- BayanTel
- Innove Communications
- Eastern Communications
- PLDT
- Innove
- BayanTel
- Submarine Cables
- ePLDT
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