The 2011-2016 World Outlook for Cutting and Sewing Materials Contractors for Women's, Girls', and Infants' Apparel

WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.? The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability). The latent demand for cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a country market. For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates. If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand. As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand. THE METHODOLOGY In order to estimate the latent demand for cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel on a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question. Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant. Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences). Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel. Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets). The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany. Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all countries and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place). Given this caveat, this study covers “cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel The NAICS code for cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel is 315212. It is for this definition of cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Cutting and sewing materials contractors for women's, girls', and infants' apparel” is specifically defined as follows: 315212 This U.S. industry comprises establishments commonly referred to as contractors primarily engaged in (1) cutting materials owned by others for women's, girls', and infants' apparel and accessories and/or (2) sewing materials owned by others for women's, girls', and infants' apparel and accessories.  3152121 CONTRACT RECEIPTS FOR WOMEN’S, MISSES’, GIRLS’, AND INFANTS’ SHIRTS AND BLOUSES  31521211 Contract receipts for women’s, misses’, girls’, and infants’ shirts and blouses  3152121100 Contract receipts for women’s, misses’, girls’, and infants’ shirts and blouses  3152123 CONTRACT RECEIPTS FOR WOMEN’S, GIRLS’, AND INFANTS’ DRESSES  31521231 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ dresses  3152123100 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ dresses  3152125 CONTRACT RECEIPTS FOR WOMEN’S, GIRLS’, AND INFANTS’ SKIRTS, TAILORED SUITS, COATS, JACKETS, AND VESTS  31521251 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ skirts, tailored suits, coats, jackets, and vests  3152125100 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ skirts, tailored suits, coats, jackets, and vests  3152127 CONTRACT RECEIPTS FOR WOMEN’S, GIRLS’, AND INFANTS’ NONTAILORED COATS, JACKETS, AND VESTS, PANTS, SHORTS, SWIMWEAR, SWEATERS, AND OTHER OUTERWEAR  31521271 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ nontailored coats, jackets, and vests, pants, shorts, swimwear, sweaters, and other outerwear  3152127100 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ nontailored coats, jackets, and vests, pants, shorts, swimwear, sweaters, and other outerwear  3152128 CONTRACT RECEIPTS FOR WOMEN’S, GIRLS’, AND INFANTS’ UNDERWEAR AND NIGHTWEAR, INCLUDING ROBES AND FOUNDATION GARMENTS  31521281 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ underwear and nightwear, including robes and foundation garments  3152128100 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ underwear and nightwear, including robes and foundation garments  3152129 RECEIPTS FOR CONTRACT AND COMMISSION WORK ON WOMEN’S, MISSES’, JUNIORS’, GIRLS’, AND INFANTS’ UNDERWEAR AND NIGHTWEAR  31521291 Receipts for contract and commission work on women’s, misses’, juniors’, girls’, and infants’ underwear and nightwear  3152129100 Receipts for contract and commission work on girls’, boys’ and infants’ underwear and nightwear  315212A Receipts for contract/commission work on women's, girls', and infants' apparel  315212A1 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ embroidering (except Schiffli), team sport uniforms, costumes, and other apparel and apparel accessories  315212A100 Contract receipts for women’s, girls’, and infants’ embroidering (except Schiffli), team sport uniforms, costumes, and other apparel and apparel accessories  315212B RECEIPTS FOR CONTRACT AND COMMISSION WORK ON BRASSIERES, CORSETS, AND ALLIED GARMENTS  315212B1 Receipts for contract and commission work on brassieres, corsets, and allied garments  315212B100 Receipts for contract and commission work on brassieres, corsets, and allied garments  315212D RECEIPTS FOR CONTRACT AND COMMISSION WORK ON WOMEN’S, MISSES’, JUNIORS’, AND GIRLS’ ROBES AND DRESSING GOWNS  315212D1 Contract and commission receipts for women’s, misses’, juniors’, and girls’ robes and dressing gowns  315212D100 Contract and commission receipts for women’s, misses’, juniors’, and girls’ robes and dressing gowns  315212F RECEIPTS FOR CONTRACT AND COMMISSION WORK ON WOMEN’S, MISSES’, JUNIORS’, AND GIRLS’ RAINCOATS AND OTHER WATERPROOF OUTERGARMENTS  315212F1 Contract and commission receipts for women’s, misses’, juniors’, and girls’ raincoats and other waterproof outergarments  315212F100 Contract and commission receipts for women’s, misses’, juniors’, and girls’ raincoats and other waterproof outergarments  315212H RECEIPTS FOR CONTRACT AND COMMISSION WORK ON WOMEN’S, MISSES’, JUNIORS’, AND GIRLS’ EMBROIDERING (OTHER THAN SCHIFFLI MACHINE), INCLUDING TUCKING, PLEATING, HEMSTITCHING AND BUTTONHOLING FOR THE TRADE  315212H1 Receipts for contract and commission work on women’s, misses’, juniors’, and girls’ embroidering (other than Schiffli machine), including tucking, pleating, hemstitching and buttonholing for the trade  315212H100 Receipts for contract and commission work on women’s, misses’, juniors’, and girls’ embroidering (other than Schiffli machine), including tucking, pleating, hemstitching and buttonholing for the trade  315212J RECEIPTS FOR CONTRACT AND COMMISSION WORK ON HANDKERCHIEFS, GARTERS, GARTER BELTS, ACADEMIC CAPS AND GOWNS, COSTUMES, ECCLESIASTICAL VESTMENTS, ETC.  315212J1 Contract and commission receipts for handkerchiefs, garters, garter belts, academic caps and gowns, costumes, ecclesiastical vestments, etc.  315212J100 Contract and commission receipts for handkerchiefs, garters, garter belts, academic caps and gowns, costumes, ecclesiastical vestments, etc  315212M Miscellaneous receipts  315212P Primary products  315212S Secondary products  315212SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts   Furthermore, the definition of NAICS code 315212 includes the following: Apparel trimmings and findings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew appare Apparel, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Apparel, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew contractors Appliqueing on women's, girls', and infants' apparel Aprons, waterproof (including plastics, rubberized fabric), woman's, girls', and Aprons, work (except leather), women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel Arm bands, elastic, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractor Art needlework contractors on women's, girls', and infants' apparel Athletic clothing, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Athletic uniforms, team, women's, girls', and infants, cut and sew apparel contra Bakers' service apparel, washable, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Band uniforms, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Bandeaux, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Baseball caps (except plastics), women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew appar Baseball uniforms, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Basketball uniforms, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Bathing suits, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Bathrobes, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Beachwear, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Bedjackets, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Belts, apparel (e.g., fabric, leather, vinyl), women's, girls', and infants', cut Belts, money, any material, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Bibs and aprons, waterproof (e.g., plastics, rubber, similar materials), women's, Bibs, waterproof, cut and sew apparel contractors Blouses, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Body stockings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Bra-slips, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Brassieres cut and sew apparel contractors Bridal dresses or gowns, women's, misses', and juniors', apparel contractors Briefs, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Buntings, infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Burial garments, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Buttonhole making apparel contractors, women's, misses', girls', and infants' (ex Buttonhole making, fur goods, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel Buttonholing and button covering apparel contractors, women's, misses', and girls Caftans, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Camisoles, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Capes (except fur), women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Capes, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Caps (i.e., apparel accessory), women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew appare Caps and gowns, academic, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Caps, textiles, straw, fur-felt, and wool-felt, women's, girls', and infants', cu Chauffeurs' hats and caps, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Chemises, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Clerical vestments, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Clothing, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Clothing, leather or sheep-lined, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew appa Clothing, water resistant, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel cont Clothing, waterproof, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contract Clothing, water-repellent, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel con Coat linings, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Coat trimmings, fabric, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contra Coats (including tailored, leather, or sheep-lined), women's, girls', and infants Coats, artificial leather, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel con Coats, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Coats, leather, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Coats, nontailored service apparel (e.g., laboratory, medical, mechanics'), women Coats, waterproof (i.e., plastics, rubberized fabric, similar materials), women's Coats, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Collar and cuff sets, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contracto Contractors, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel Corselets cut and sew apparel contractors Corsets and allied garments (except surgical), women's, cut and sew apparel contr Costumes (e.g., lodge, masquerade, theatrical) women's, girls' and infants', cut Coveralls, work, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Culottes, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Cut and sew apparel contractors, women's, girls', and infants' Cutting fabric owned by others for women's, girls', and infants' apparel Decorative stitching contractors on women's, misses', girls', and infants' appare Diaper covers, water resistant and waterproof, cut and sew apparel contractors Dickeys, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Down-filled clothing, women's, girls' and infants' cut and sew apparel contractor Drawers, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Dress and semidress gloves, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel co Dress trimmings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Dresses, women's, misses', girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Dressing gowns, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Dungarees, women's girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Dusters (i.e., apparel), women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Embroidering contractors on women's, misses', girls', and infants' apparel Ensemble dresses, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Eyelet making contractors on women's, misses', girls', and infants' apparel Feather-filled clothing, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contr Findings, suit and coat (e.g., coat fromts, pockets), women's, girls', and infant Firefighters' dress uniforms, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Flannel shirts, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Foundation garments, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Fur accessories and trimings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel Fur apparel (e.g., capes, coats, hats, jackets, neckpieces), women's, girls', and Fur clothing, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Fur finishers, liners, and buttonhole makers, women's, girls', and infants', cut Fur plates and trimmings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel cont Garments, leather or sheep-lined, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew appa Garter belts cut and sew apparel contractors Garters, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Girdles, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Glove linings, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractor Gloves and mittens (except athletic), leather, fabric, fur, or combinations, wome Gloves and mittens, woven or knit, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew app Gloves, leather (except athletic), women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew app Gowns (e.g., academic, choir, clerical), women's, and girls', cut and sew apparel Gowns, formal, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Gowns, hospital, surgical and patient, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew Gowns, wedding, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Graduation caps and gowns, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Handkerchiefs (except paper), women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel Hat bodies (e.g., fur-felt, straw, wool-felt), women's, girls', and infants', cut Hat findings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Hat linings and trimmings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel con Hats, cloth, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Hats, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Hats, fur-felt, straw, and wool-felt, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew Hats, leather, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Hats, trimmed, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Hats, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Headbands, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Hemstitching apparel contractors on women's, girls', and infants' apparel Hospital service apparel, washable, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contr Housecoats, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Housedresses, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Industrial garments, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Infants' cut and sew apparel contractors Jackets, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Jackets, leather (except welders') or sheep-lined, women's, girls', and infants', Jackets, service apparel (e.g., laboratory, medical), women's and girls', cut and Jackets, ski, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Jackets, tailored, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Jackets, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Jean-cut casual slacks, women's, girls, and infants', cut and sew apparel contrac Jeans, women's, misses', girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Jerseys, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Jogging suits, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Jumpsuits, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Knickers, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Knit gloves, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Laboratory coats, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Leather apparel (e.g., capes, coats, hats, jackets), women's, girls', and infants Leather clothing manufacturing, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew appare Leather gloves or mittens (except athletic), women's, girls', and infants', cut a Leggings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Leotards, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Lingerie, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Lounging robes and dressing gowns, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew app Mackinaws, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Maternity bras and corsets, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Medical service apparel, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Melton jackets, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Middies, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Military dress uniforms, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Millinery trimmings, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contracto Millinery, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Mittens, leather, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Mittens, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Mittens, woven or knit, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contra Mufflers, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Neckpieces, fur, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Neckties, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Neckwear, women's, girls' and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Needlework art contractors on women's, girls', and infants' apparel Negligees, women's, cut and sew apparel contractors Nightgowns, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Nightshirts, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Nightwear, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Novelty stitching contractors on women's, girls', and infants' apparel Opera hats, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Overcoats, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Pajamas, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Panama hats, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Panties, women's and girls', cut and sew apparel contractors Pants outfits, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Pants, athletic, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Pants, infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Pants, sweat, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Pants, waterproof outerwear, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel c Pants, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Pantsuits, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Panty girdles cut and sew apparel contractors Paper dresses, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Plastics gowns, women's, girls', and infants, cut and sew apparel contractors Plastics rainwear, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Playsuits, women's, girls', and infants', cut and sew apparel contractors Pleating contractors on women's, girls', and infants' apparel Pockets (e.g.

1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Overview 1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 1.3 The Methodology 1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 1.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 2.1 The Worldwide Market Potential 3 AFRICA 3.1 Executive Summary 3.2 Algeria 3.3 Angola 3.4 Benin 3.5 Botswana 3.6 Burkina Faso 3.7 Burundi 3.8 Cameroon 3.9 Cape Verde 3.10 Central African Republic 3.11 Chad 3.12 Comoros 3.13 Congo (formerly Zaire) 3.14 Cote d'Ivoire 3.15 Djibouti 3.16 Egypt 3.17 Equatorial Guinea 3.18 Ethiopia 3.19 Gabon 3.20 Ghana 3.21 Guinea 3.22 Guinea-Bissau 3.23 Kenya 3.24 Lesotho 3.25 Liberia 3.26 Libya 3.27 Madagascar 3.28 Malawi 3.29 Mali 3.30 Mauritania 3.31 Mauritius 3.32 Morocco 3.33 Mozambique 3.34 Namibia 3.35 Niger 3.36 Nigeria 3.37 Republic of Congo 3.38 Reunion 3.39 Rwanda 3.40 Sao Tome E Principe 3.41 Senegal 3.42 Sierra Leone 3.43 Somalia 3.44 South Africa 3.45 Sudan 3.46 Swaziland 3.47 Tanzania 3.48 The Gambia 3.49 Togo 3.50 Tunisia 3.51 Uganda 3.52 Western Sahara 3.53 Zambia 3.54 Zimbabwe 4 ASIA 4.1 Executive Summary 4.2 Bangladesh 4.3 Bhutan 4.4 Brunei 4.5 Burma 4.6 Cambodia 4.7 China 4.8 Hong Kong 4.9 India 4.10 Indonesia 4.11 Japan 4.12 Laos 4.13 Macau 4.14 Malaysia 4.15 Maldives 4.16 Mongolia 4.17 Nepal 4.18 North Korea 4.19 Papua New Guinea 4.20 Philippines 4.21 Seychelles 4.22 Singapore 4.23 South Korea 4.24 Sri Lanka 4.25 Taiwan 4.26 Thailand 4.27 Vietnam 5 EUROPE 5.1 Executive Summary 5.2 Albania 5.3 Andorra 5.4 Austria 5.5 Belarus 5.6 Belgium 5.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.8 Bulgaria 5.9 Croatia 5.10 Cyprus 5.11 Czech Republic 5.12 Denmark 5.13 Estonia 5.14 Finland 5.15 France 5.16 Georgia 5.17 Germany 5.18 Greece 5.19 Hungary 5.20 Iceland 5.21 Ireland 5.22 Italy 5.23 Kazakhstan 5.24 Latvia 5.25 Liechtenstein 5.26 Lithuania 5.27 Luxembourg 5.28 Malta 5.29 Moldova 5.30 Monaco 5.31 Norway 5.32 Poland 5.33 Portugal 5.34 Romania 5.35 Russia 5.36 San Marino 5.37 Slovakia 5.38 Slovenia 5.39 Spain 5.40 Sweden 5.41 Switzerland 5.42 The Netherlands 5.43 The United Kingdom 5.44 Ukraine 6 OCEANA 6.1 Executive Summary 6.2 American Samoa 6.3 Australia 6.4 Christmas Island 6.5 Cook Islands 6.6 Fiji 6.7 French Polynesia 6.8 Guam 6.9 Kiribati 6.10 Marshall Islands 6.11 Micronesia Federation 6.12 Nauru 6.13 New Caledonia 6.14 New Zealand 6.15 Niue 6.16 Norfolk Island 6.17 Palau 6.18 Solomon Islands 6.19 The Northern Mariana Island 6.20 Tokelau 6.21 Tonga 6.22 Tuvalu 6.23 Vanuatu 6.24 Wallis and Futuna 6.25 Western Samoa 7 THE AMERICAS 7.1 Executive Summary 7.2 Antigua and Barbuda 7.3 Argentina 7.4 Aruba 7.5 Barbados 7.6 Belize 7.7 Bermuda 7.8 Bolivia 7.9 Brazil 7.10 Canada 7.11 Chile 7.12 Colombia 7.13 Costa Rica 7.14 Cuba 7.15 Dominica 7.16 Dominican Republic 7.17 Ecuador 7.18 El Salvador 7.19 French Guiana 7.20 Greenland 7.21 Grenada 7.22 Guadeloupe 7.23 Guatemala 7.24 Guyana 7.25 Haiti 7.26 Honduras 7.27 Jamaica 7.28 Martinique 7.29 Mexico 7.30 Nicaragua 7.31 Panama 7.32 Paraguay 7.33 Peru 7.34 Puerto Rico 7.35 St. Kitts and Nevis 7.36 St. Lucia 7.37 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 7.38 Suriname 7.39 The Bahamas 7.40 The British Virgin Islands 7.41 The Cayman Islands 7.42 The Falkland Islands 7.43 The Netherlands Antilles 7.44 The U.S. Virgin Islands 7.45 The United States 7.46 Trinidad and Tobago 7.47 Uruguay 7.48 Venezuela 8 THE MIDDLE EAST 8.1 Executive Summary 8.2 Afghanistan 8.3 Armenia 8.4 Azerbaijan 8.5 Bahrain 8.6 Iran 8.7 Iraq 8.8 Israel 8.9 Jordan 8.10 Kuwait 8.11 Kyrgyzstan 8.12 Lebanon 8.13 Oman 8.14 Pakistan 8.15 Palestine 8.16 Qatar 8.17 Saudi Arabia 8.18 Syrian Arab Republic 8.19 Tajikistan 8.20 The United Arab Emirates 8.21 Turkey 8.22 Turkmenistan 8.23 Uzbekistan 8.24 Yemen 9 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 9.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 9.2 ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions

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