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Longhaus Australian Tech Index: Q4 2010
Longhaus, Jan 2011, Pages: 9
This quarterly syndicated report provides an overview of the Australian Tech Index for Q4 2010. The Australian Tech Index is a quarterly index based on a propriety model developed to measure the health of the Australian ICT industry.
The model measures the Australian ICT industry from the following four (4) dimensions: a) demand forces including ICT spending and ICT importing, b) supply factors including influx volume of venture capital (VC) funding, c) strength of vendors indicated by market value, and employment capacity, and d) consumer factors including internet subscription rates. Collectively, these four (4) dimensions and their accompanying factors indicate the health of the Australian ICT industry.
Finally by providing calculated weightings to these indicators and including heuristic views from Australian CIOs, the index provides important insights into lag, lead and predictive indicators of the Australian technology economy.
The Australian Tech Index slid slightly by 0.8% (or 1.3 points) to finish at 151.1 by the end of Q3 2010. This movement corresponded to previous assertions that the actual Q3 figure would enter a brief downwards correction. This decline represents the first negative quarter since Q1 2009 and brings the index back below its second historical peak and indicating a lack of solid economic support to break through the previous ceiling of 154.48 points. However the latest CIO Confidence Poll revealed that in Q4 2010, Australia's IT decision makers are expecting the Australian ICT economy to regain its climb and set a new peak in Q1 2011.
Looking ahead, Australian CIOs forecasted high positive growth in Q4 2010 with the 50 respondents anticipating significant index gains of between 7% and 12%. These represent the highest projections since 2008. Overall, the authors believe that the 2010 end-point for the index will just reach a new peak in the range of 158 points, despite, the ever-optimistic Australian CIO predicting an even better result in the range of 162-169.
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