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HTML5 and Cross Platform Mobile Web Application Developments: New Ammo for the Fragmentation War
Smith's Point Analytics, March 2011, Pages: 41
This report evaluates and quantifies the opportunity for mobile web application development environments. The research also looks at opportunities and changes within the ecosystem that will emerge with the adoption of HTML5
The mobile application market is on the verge of disruptive change. Mobile web applications are growing more powerful and capable and will transform the current mobile ecosystem. Software vendors providing tools and platforms to web developers are well positioned to take advantage of this market shift. Smith's Point Analytics estimates that mobile web application platforms will generate almost $2.6B in service revenue in 2015. These platforms, which enable web developers to create mobile applications using HTML5, JavaScript and CSS, will grow revenues at a 114%CAGR from 2010 to 2015.
Three primary drivers will propel the growth of mobile web applications:
- The increased performance of web applications enabled by HTML5 and innovative development architectures that put web app functionality on par with native applications.
- The large pool of web developers available to leverage their skills and new tools to create a growing number of rich mobile web applications.
- The ability of web applications to run across multiple mobile operating systems.
Vendors are taking different approaches to serve web developers by creating diverse architecture to streamline application development. The ability to sell developers on the right approach will be key to success. The VC community is taking note of this emerging opportunity and has risked over $35 million financing multiple vendors to develop their offerings and business models.
The shift to web applications will have a number of implications for the mobile industry. Platform fragmentation will be less of an issue as web apps are much more portable across platforms. This will reduce costs and frustration for the mobile app developer. Enterprises will be one of the greatest beneficiaries of this trend as they look for better ways to engage their clients and prospects across multiple platforms while tapping in-house resources.
The application distribution model also changes drastically as robust applications will be generally available on the web in addition to OEM controlled app stores. As applications move from the app store to the web, application discovery will become a bigger challenge in application distribution. This changing dynamic will provide new opportunities within the ecosystem to gain power and influence and social networking players will be big winners. The business model also changes as the revenue streams generated from app stores diminish causing platform vendors will turn to value added services to generate income.
While the rise of the mobile web application will have significant implications in the mobile app market, the native application is not going away. Native apps will continue to provide greater functionality and enable developers to leverage cutting edge device features.
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