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Australia Business Forecast Report Q2 2011 - Product Image

Australia Business Forecast Report Q2 2011

  • Published: March 2011
  • Region: Australia
  • 50 Pages
  • Business Monitor International

ALP Government Increasingly Challenged

The Australian economy experienced a slowdown in Q310, growing by a sluggish 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) (seasonally adjusted) from a revised 1.1% recorded in the preceding quarter. The recent deceleration in Australia’s headline real GDP growth was consistent with our below-consensus growth forecast of 2.8% for 2010. Indeed, we believe the recent tightening in borrowing costs and weakening consumer confidence will act as key headwinds in 2011. In addition, the country also suffered major destruction and disruptions of economic activity owing to flooding in parts of Queensland and Victoria in January, followed by Cyclone Yasi in the north in February. In short, the resulting impact on the domestic economy should contribute to the slowdown in economic growth to 2.4% and 2.3% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

The Australian Labor Party (ALP) government faces a number of key political challenges over the next two years, such as the 30% mineral resource rent tax, emissions trading scheme and the flood levy resulting from the Queensland floods. These issues representpotential stumbling blocks for the AL P administration given that READ MORE >

Executive Summary
ALP Government Increasingly Challenged

Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
ALP Rule Increasingly Shaky
The ruling Australian Labor Party faces an increasing risk of losing power over the next two years
Table: Political Overview
Long-Term Political Outlook
Three Key Challenges: Population, Climate Change, China
The Australian political scene is expected to remain stable over the coming decade, although it will still face a
number of key challenges

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity I
Poor Q310 Results Support Weak Recovery Story
The slowdown in Australia’s real GDP growth in Q310 is in line with our view that weakening investment and private consumption growth will cause a drag in headline expansion
Table: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Monetary Policy
Rates Going Nowhere
In view of the improvement to our global economic outlook, especially the US and China, we have revised our end-2011 cash rate target upwards to 4.75%, from 4.50% previously
table: MONETARY POLICY
Key Sector Outlook
Property Price Declines To Persist In 2011
In view of the recent housing price correction, in which the value of homes in capital cities have fallen from the peak of May 2010, we believe the downward trend will persist under tighter lending conditions this year
Economic Activity II
Queensland Disasters Pose Risks To 2011 Growth
We believe the recent Queensland floods and Cyclone Yasi will hamper Australia’s overall growth prospects in 2011 (with our current forecast at 2.4%)

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
The Australian Economy To 2020
Exports, Immigration Key For Long-term Growth
Australia’s real GDP growth is expected to remain firm, averaging 2.8% in the 10-year period from 2011 to 2020 table: AUSTRALIA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts

Chapter 4: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Investment Climate
Asian Firms To Fuel Foreign Investment Inflows
The rise in wealth levels in China, as well as fewer domestic opportunities in Japan, should compel more investment funds to flow into Australia, taking advantage of the country’s rich natural resources as well as its strong business environment
Business Environment Outlook
Infrastructure
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Table: Labour Force Quality
Market Orientation
TABLE : ASIA , ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
TABLE : TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
Operational Risk

Chapter 5: Key Sectors
Pharmaceuticals
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Pharmacy OTC Medicine Sales In Australia (US $), 2008
Table: Medical Device Sales 2007-2015
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
Telecommunications
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts (AU D)

Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
Growth Solidifies, But Inflation Poses A Threat
table: Global Assump tions
TABLE : GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH % CHG Y-O-Y

TABLE : CONSENSUS FORECASTS
Chapter 7: Sector Forecast Appendix
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
Table: pharmaceutical Sector Key Indicators
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
Table: Freight Key Indicators

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