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Canada Autos Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, March 2011, Pages: 33
The Canada Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's automotive industry.
Total light vehicle sales in Canada for 2010 finished the year up 6.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), although this was largely owing to a strong performance by the light truck segment as passenger car sales ended the year down 5.2%. Heavy truck sales, however, rebounded with growth of 21.9%, reflecting an uptick in business confidence and an overall improvement in the economic scenario, which is generating freight demand. Heading into 2011, sales have already shown some signs of slowing. Following a 0.1% y-o-y decline in light vehicle sales in December 2010, there was a slight rebound in January with growth of 3.6% before a 4.2% contraction in February 2011. This was led by a 10.9% drop in sales of passenger cars, which was only partially offset by a 7% increase in light truck sales.
BMI has cautioned since late 2010 that some of the most generous cash incentives have been offered in the truck market, which could be inflating natural growth. Looking ahead, BMI believes that sales growth can remain positive, with growth to moderate to an annual average of 1.5% for the remainder of the fiveyear forecast period, a slight downwards revision from our earlier forecast. This follows BMI's view that private consumption will contribute less to economic growth in 2011 than in previous years.
The recovery in vehicle production growth, which we expected from 2010 onwards is also playing out. We still believe this is sustainable through to the end of 2015 as investment projects come into play and labour agreements ensure that the Detroit Three keep an agreed proportion of North American output in Canada. This is particularly true of General Motors Company (GM), which is also meeting the obligations of its loans from the federal and Ontario governments, while also adding shifts to meet increasing demand for new products.
Ford Motor in particular took advantage of the swing towards light trucks in 2010, claiming the lead of the light vehicle market, ahead of GM, which still registered a 2.1% decline in sales despite the overall market growth. It should be remembered, however, that GM is now operating with four fewer brands than in 2009. Chrysler enjoyed the best growth of the US brands with sales up 25.7%. This took it past Toyota Motor for third place and a market share of 13.1%, compared with 11.1% in 2009. The more passenger car-oriented Japanese brands have suffered from the shift in preference, with Toyota's sales falling 16.7% in 2010 and Honda Motor's sales up by less than 1%. This resulted in a massive drop in market share for the two, with Toyota falling from 14% to 10.1% and Honda's share shrinking to 7.9% from 9.6% in 2009.
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