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The 2011 Report on Animal Slaughtering and Processing: World Market Segmentation by City
ICON Group International, Jan 2011, Pages: 338
Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for animal slaughtering and processing across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for animal slaughtering and processing. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for animal slaughtering and processing is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for animal slaughtering and processing at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for animal slaughtering and processing on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled 'A' in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as 'B' in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for animal slaughtering and processing across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a 'long-run' aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for animal slaughtering and processing. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for animal slaughtering and processing. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just animal slaughtering and processing.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “animal slaughtering and processing” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within animal slaughtering and processing falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “animal slaughtering and processing” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). animal slaughtering and processing The NAICS code for animal slaughtering and processing is 3116. It is for this definition of animal slaughtering and processing that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Animal slaughtering and processing” is specifically defined as follows:
3116
Animal Slaughtering and Processing
31161
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) slaughtering animals; (2) preparing processed meats and meat byproducts; and (3) rendering and/or refining animal fat, bones, and meat scraps. This industry includes establishments primarily engaged in assembly cutting and packing of meats (i.e., boxed meats) from purchased carcasses.
311611
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in slaughtering animals (except poultry and small game). Establishments that slaughter and prepare meats are included in this industry.
3116111
Fresh and frozen beef, not canned or made into sausage; mitse
31161111
Whole or half carcass & primal beef cuts not canned or made into sausage; mitse
3116111111
Fresh and frozen whole carcass and half carcass beef, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
31161112
Subprimal & fabricated beef cuts however packed incl. plastic lined boxes; mitse
3116111221
Fresh and frozen beef primal cuts, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
31161113
Fresh/frozen boneless beef incl hamburger, not canned/made into sausage; mitse
3116111331
Fresh and frozen beef subprimal and fabricated cuts packaged in plastics (boxed beef), not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
31161114
Other fresh/frozen beef incl. corned or organ cuts, not canned or sausage; mitse
3116111441
Other fresh and frozen beef subprimal and fabricated cuts, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
31161115
Fresh and frozen boneless beef, including hamburger, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116111551
Fresh and frozen boneless beef, including hamburger, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
31161116
Fresh and frozen beef variety meats (edible organs) and other meats, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116111661
Fresh and frozen beef variety meats (edible organs), not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116111671
Other fresh and frozen edible beef, including corned beef, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116114
Fresh and frozen veal not canned or made into sausage; mitse
31161141
Veal, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116114111
Fresh and frozen whole carcass and half carcass veal, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116114121
Fresh and frozen primal, subprimal, fabricated cuts, and boneless veal, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116114131
Other fresh and frozen edible veal, including edible organs, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116117
Fresh and frozen lamb or mutton, not canned or made into sausage; mitse
31161171
Lamb and mutton, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116117111
Fresh and frozen whole carcass and half carcass lamb and mutton, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
3116117121
Fresh and frozen primal cuts and all other edible lamb and mutton, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611A
Fresh and frozen pork, not canned or made into sausage; mitse
311611A1
Pork, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611A111
Fresh and frozen whole carcass and half carcass pork, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611A121
Fresh and frozen pork primal and fabricated cuts (including trimmings), not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611A131
Fresh and frozen pork variety meats (edible organs), not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611D
Lard; mitse
311611D1
Lard, made in slaughtering plants
311611D111
Lard, consumer sizes (containers 3 lb or less), made in slaughtering plants
311611D121
Lard, commercial sizes (containers more than 3 lb), made in slaughtering plants
311611D131
Lard, including rendered pork fat (including lard stearin)
311611G
Pork, processed or cured, but not canned or made into sausage; mitse
311611G1
Pork, processed or cured, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611G111
Sweet_pickled or dry_cured pork (not smoked, cooked, canned, or made into sausage), made in slaughtering plants
311611G121
Dry salt pork, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611G131
Smoked hams and picnics, except canned, made in slaughtering plants
311611G141
Smoked slab bacon, made in slaughtering plants
311611G151
Smoked sliced bacon, made in slaughtering plants
311611G161
Other smoked pork, not canned or made into sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611G171
Boiled ham, barbecue pork, and other cooked pork, except canned meats and sausage, made in slaughtering plants
311611J
Sausages and similar products, but not canned; mitse
311611J1
Sausage and similar products, except canned, made in slaughtering plants
311611J111
Fresh sausage (pork sausage, breakfast links, etc.), except canned, made in slaughtering plants
311611J121
Dry or semidry sausage (salami, cervelat, beef jerky, pepperoni, summer sausage, pork roll, etc.), made in slaughtering plants
311611J131
Frankfurters, including wieners, except canned, made in slaughtering plants
311611J141
Other sausage, smoked or cooked (bologna, liverwurst, Polish sausage, etc.) , except canned, made in slaughtering plants
311611J151
Jellied goods and similar preparations (headcheese, meat loaves, scrapple, puddings, chili con carne, etc.), except canned, made in slaughtering plants
311611M
Miscellaneous receipts
311611M1
Canned meats (except dog, cat, and baby food), made in slaughtering plants
311611M100
Canned meats (except dog, cat, and baby food), made in slaughtering plants
311611N
Canned meats (except dog, cat, and baby food); mitse
311611P
Primary products
311611P1
Hides, skins, and pelts, made in slaughtering plants
311611P111
Cattle hides, skins, and pelts (including kip), made in slaughtering plants
311611P121
Calf hides, skins, and pelts (except kip), made in slaughtering plants
311611P131
Sheep and lamb hides, skins, and pelts, made in slaughtering plants
311611P141
Other hides, skins, and pelts (except kip), made in slaughtering plants
311611Q
Hides, skins, and pelts; mitse
311611R
MISCELLANEOUS BYPRODUCTS OF SLAUGHTERING PLANTS
311611R1
Miscellaneous byproducts of slaughtering plants
311611R111
Other fresh and frozen meats, including horsemeat for human consumption, made in slaughtering plants
311611R121
Pork rind pellets, including pork cracklings, made in slaughtering plants
311611R131
Edible tallow and stearin, made in slaughtering plants
311611R141
Natural sausage casings (beef, hog, etc.), made in slaughtering plants
311611R151
Killing floor offal, scrap, and bones, made in slaughtering plants
311611R161
Other miscellaneous byproducts of slaughtering plants, including pulled wool and glue stock (except sausage casings)
311611R171
Animals slaughtered for pet food
311611R181
Custom slaughtering of animals
311611S
Secondary products
311611SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
311611T
Miscellaneous by-products of meat packing; mitse
311611T1
Miscellaneous byproducts of meat packing plants
311611T111
Other fresh and frozen meats, including horsemeat for human consumption, made from animals slaughtered in this plant
311611T121
Pork rind pellets, including pork cracklings, made from animals slaughtered in this plant
311611T131
Edible tallow and stearin, made from animals slaughtered in this plant
311611T141
Natural sausage casings (beef, hog, etc.), made from animals slaughtered in this plant
311611T151
Killing floor offal, scrap, and bones
311611T161
Other miscellaneous byproducts of meat packing plants, including pulled wool and glue stock (except sausage casings)
311611T171
Animals slaughtered for pet feed
311612
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in processing or preserving meat and meat byproducts (except poultry and small game) from purchased meats. This industry includes establishments primarily engaged in assembly cutting and packing of meats (i.e., boxed meats) from purchased meats.
3116121
Pork, processed or cured, including frozen not canned or made into sausage
31161211
Sweet_pickled, dry salt, or dry_cured pork (not smoked, cooked, canned, or made into sausage), made from purchased carcasses
3116121111
Sweet_pickled or dry_cured pork (not smoked, cooked, canned, or made into sausage), made from purchased carcasses
3116121121
Dry salt pork, not canned or made into sausage, made from purchased carcasses
31161212
Smoked hams and picnics, except canned, made from purchased carcasses
3116121231
Smoked hams and picnics, except canned, made from purchased carcasses
31161213
Smoked slab bacon, made from purchased carcasses
3116121341
Smoked slab bacon, made from purchased carcasses
31161214
Smoked sliced bacon, made from purchased carcasses
3116121451
Smoked sliced bacon, made from purchased carcasses
31161215
Other smoked pork, not canned or made into sausage, made from purchased carcasses
3116121561
Other smoked pork, not canned or made into sausage, made from purchased carcasses
31161216
Boiled ham, barbecue pork, and other cooked pork, except canned meats and sausage, made from purchased carcasses
3116121671
Boiled ham, barbecue pork, and other cooked pork, except canned meats and sausage, made from purchased carcasses
31161217
Lard, except canned, made from purchased carcasses
3116121781
Lard, except canned, made from purchased carcasses
3116124
Sausage and similar products, except canned, not made in meat packing plants
31161241
Fresh sausage (pork sausage, breakfast links etc.), except canned
3116124111
Fresh sausage (pork sausage, breakfast links, etc.), except canned, made from purchased carcasses
31161242
Dry or semidry sausage and similar products (pepperoni, summer sausage, etc.)
3116124221
Dry or semidry sausage (salami, cervelat, beef jerky, pepperoni, summer sausage, pork roll, etc.), made from purchased carcasses
31161243
Frankfurters, including wieners, except canned, not made in meat packing plants
3116124331
Frankfurters, including wieners, except canned, made from purchased carcasses
31161244
Other sausage, smoked or cooked, and jellied goods and similar preparations
3116124441
Other sausage, smoked or cooked (bologna, liverwurst, Polish sausage, etc.) , except canned, made from purchased carcasses
3116124451
Jellied goods and similar preparations (headcheese, meat loaves, scrapple, puddings, chili con carne, etc.), except canned, made from purchased carcasses
3116127
Canned meats (except dog, cat, and baby food) containing 20 percent or more meat
31161271
Canned meats (except dog, cat, and baby food), made from purchased carcasses
3116127100
Canned meats (except dog, cat, and baby food), made from purchased carcasses
311612A
Other processed meats not made in meat packing plants, including boxed meats
311612A1
Boxed meat (beef, pork, lamb etc.) not made in slaughtering plants
311612A111
Boxed meat (beef, pork, lamb, etc.), made from purchased carcasses
311612A2
Frozen ground meat patties (processed, frozen, or cooked)
311612A221
Frozen ground meat patties, made from purchased carcasses
311612A3
Frozen portion control meats (processed, frozen, or cooked)
311612A331
Frozen portion control meats, made from purchased carcasses
311612A4
Other processed, frozen, or cooked meats, not made in meat packing plants
311612A441
Pork rind pellets, including pork cracklings, made from purchased carcasses
311612A451
Other processed, frozen, or cooked meats (including corned beef, frozen primal and fabricated cuts, frozen variety meats, etc.), made from purchased carcasses
311612A461
Collagen sausage casings, made from purchased carcasses
311612M
Miscellaneous receipts
311612P
Primary products
311612S
Secondary products
311612SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
311613
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in rendering animal fat, bones, and meat scraps.
3116131
Animal & marine grease, incl. lard, except canned
31161311
Rendering and meat by_product processing
3116131111
Rendered lard, except canned, not made in meat packing plants
3116131121
Animal and marine grease, other than wool grease
3116131131
Grease, yellow
3116131141
Grease, other (excluding wool grease)
3116134
Animal and marine feed and fertilizer byproducts
31161341
Meat and bone meal feed and fertilizer byproducts
3116134111
Animal and marine meat and bonemeal feed and fertilizer byproducts
31161342
Other feed and fertilizer byproducts
3116134221
Animal and marine dry rendered tankage feed and fertilizer byproducts
3116134231
Animal and marine feather meal feed and fertilizer byproducts
3116134241
Other feed and fertilizer byproducts, including dried blood, poultry fat and byproducts, meal, and raw products for pet food
3116134251
Animal oil mill products, including all other animal oils, except fatty acids
3116134261
Foots, animal oil and acidulated soap stock
3116135
ANIMAL AND MARINE FEED AND FERTILIZER BYPRODUCTS
31161351
Meat and bone meal
3116135111
Meat and bone meal
31161352
Animal and marine feed and fertilizer byproducts, except meat and bone meal
3116135221
Dry rendered tankage
3116135243
Other feed and fertilizer by_products
3116135251
Animal oil mill products, including all other animal oils, except fatty acids
3116135261
Foots, animal oil and acidulated soap stock
3116135271
Foots, vegetable oil
311613M
Miscellaneous receipts
311613P
Primary products
311613S
Secondary products
311613SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
311615
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in (1) slaughtering poultry and small game and/or (2) preparing processed poultry and small game meat and meat byproducts.
3116151
Young chickens (usually under 20 weeks of age), whole or parts
31161511
Wet ice pack broilers and fryers (usually under 20 weeks of age), bulk
3116151111
Bulk wet ice pack broilers and fryers
31161512
Dry ice pack broilers and fryers (usually under 20 weeks of age), bulk
3116151221
Bulk dry ice packed broilers and fryers, and roasters, and capons incl. frozen
31161513
Tray pack (consumer packaged) broilers and fryers (usually under 20 weeks of age), chilled
3116151331
Tray pack broilers and fryers (consumer packaged), chilled
31161514
Other broilers and fryers (usually under 20 weeks of age), including frozen
3116151441
Other broilers and fryers, including frozen
31161515
Roasters and capons (usually under 20 weeks of age), including frozen
3116151551
Roasters and capons (usually under 20 weeks of age), including frozen
3116154
HENS AND/OR FOWL (INCLUDING FROZEN WHOLE OR PARTS)
31161541
Hens and/or fowl (including frozen whole or parts)
3116154111
Egg producing hens and/or fowl, whole or parts (including frozen)
3116154121
Breeder hens and/or fowl, whole or parts (including frozen)
3116157
Turkeys (including frozen whole or parts)
31161571
Fryer_roaster turkeys (usually under 16 weeks of age), whole (including frozen)
3116157111
Fryer_roaster turkeys (usually under 16 weeks of age), whole (including frozen)
31161572
Young turkeys (mature) (usually 4 to 7 months of age), whole (including frozen)
3116157221
Young turkeys (mature) (usually 4 to 7 months of age), whole (including frozen)
31161573
Whole old turkeys (breeders) (usually over 12 months of age), and turkey parts (including frozen)
3116157331
Old turkeys (breeders) (usually over 12 months of age), whole (including frozen)
3116157341
Turkey parts, including ground turkey, turkey cutlets, etc. (including frozen)
311615A
OTHER POULTRY AND SMALL GAME (INCLUDING FROZEN), WHOLE OR PARTS
311615A1
Other poultry and small game (including frozen), whole or parts
311615A111
Ducks, whole or parts (including frozen)
311615A121
Other poultry and small game (geese, rabbits, etc.), whole or parts (including frozen)
311615D
Processed poultry & small game (has 20 percent or more poultry/meat) excl. soups
311615D1
Processed poultry and small game (except soups) containing 20 percent or more poultry or meat
311615D111
Canned poultry
311615D121
Cooked or smoked turkey, including frozen (except frankfurters, hams, and luncheon meats), containing 20 percent or more poultry
311615D131
Cooked or smoked chicken, including frozen (except frankfurters, hams, and luncheon meats), containing 20 percent or more poultry
311615D141
Cooked or smoked poultry frankfurters (including wieners), including frozen, containing 20 percent or more poultry
311615D151
Cooked or smoked poultry hams and luncheon meats, including frozen, containing 20 percent or more poultry
311615D161
Other cooked or smoked poultry, including frozen, containing 20 percent or more poultry
311615D171
Other processed poultry and small game (dehydrated, raw_boned, etc.) (including frozen), containing 20 percent or more poultry
311615M
Miscellaneous receipts
311615P
Primary products
311615S
Secondary products
311615SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing
Based on the aggregate view of animal slaughtering and processing as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries and cities as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped
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