France Infrastructure Report Q2 2011
Business Monitor International, March 2011, Pages: 98
France Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's infrastructure industry.
After contracting by an estimated 4.0% in 2010 and 4.4% in 2009, we forecast that France’s construction market will register a return to growth in real terms amounting to 4.5% in 2011, with moderate annual real sector growth anticipated through to the end of our core forecast period in 2015 (and beyond).
After two years of contraction – which have come despite counter-cyclical spending by the French government – the construction market should grow this year. A number of factors support our more positive outlook for 2011 and beyond:
- A tentative recovery of private sector investment in construction activity, after three years of decline.
- Close to EUR25bn worth of transport public private partnerships (PPPs) and concessions are in the final planning/tendering stages in France (excluding the La Reunion tram), and another EUR32bn worth of projects is planned to be launched between 2012 and 2020
- The country's hosting of the UEFA Euro 2016 Football Championship will certainly provide a welcome source of new contracts for developers. France beat off competition from Italy and Turkey to win hosting status in May 2010.
Risks To Forecasts
The primary risk to a recovery beyond 2010 is a 'double-dip’ recession in which an economic bounce is negated by tighter monetary and fiscal policy and/or higher commodity prices, which in turn triggers a second down turn. Indeed, the construction sector may take more time to recover than expected if abrasive economic developments seen in recent months worsen. Additionally, the effect of the bad winter may yet prove to have a more pronounced effect on construction sector activity in Q410 than we currently estimate, given that our forecast scenario was amended before the end of the year.
The main upside risk is a scenario whereby the French economy strengthens at a more rapid rate than currently anticipated by our macroeconomic team. In that case, stronger private-sector-led construction activity would help to ensure stronger positive sector growth, in real terms.
Business Environment
France’s score remained static this quarter in BMI’s Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings at 71.9. However, the country has gained one place in our rankings, leapfrogging the United Kingdom, thanks to a slip in the latter’s score. The previous quarter, the United Kingdom had briefly overtaken France.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
France Infrastructure SWOT
France Infrastructure Project Finance SWOT
France Economic SWOT
France Political SWOT
Market Overview
France
Building Materials
Global Materials
Building Materials: Global Demand to Hit New Highs In 2011
Europe Overview
Outlook Uncertain Despite Some Signs Of Recovery
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: France Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2015
Table: France Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure
Table: France Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2015
Table: France Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
Transport Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Transport Infrastructure Overview
Table: Competitiveness Of France’s Transport Infrastructure
Major Projects Table – Transport
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
Table: France Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2007-2015
Table: France Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2012-2020
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Energy & Utilities
Residential/Non- Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Table: France Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
Table: France Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Forecast Scenario
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Overview
Commercial
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
Business Environment
France Business Environment
Rewards
Risks
Regional Overview
Developed States Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Table: Developed States Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
Project Finance Ratings
France Project Finance Ratings
Design And Construction
Commissioning And Operating
Overall Project Finance Rating
Regional Overview
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Developed States
Table: Design And Construction Rating
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: France – Economic Activity
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Company Monitor
Lafarge
Bouygues Construction (Bouygues Group)
VINCI Group
EDF Group
Global Overview
Table: BMI's Core Views For Global Infrastructure
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Data Methodology
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
Construction
Capital Investment
Construction Sector Employment
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators
Project Finance Ratings
Table: Design And Construction Phase
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport
Sources
- Lafarge
- Bouygues Construction (Bouygues Group)
- VINCI Group
- EDF Group
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