Gastric Cancer Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds

Original analysis of the clinical potential and commercial prospects for companies, launched products and pipeline candidates put into current market context.

The market is set for rapid and significant growth:

There is room for considerable change in the gastric cancer market as improved therapies seek to improve patient outcomes for advanced disease. Over the next seven years, Espicom expects to see the market grow by 133% from US$846 million in 2010, to US$1.97 billion in 2017, with the targeted therapies accounting for most of this growth. While competition amongst these targeted therapies will intensify from 2013/4, Roche will continue to dominate this market with Herceptin, which was recently approved in Japan.

Next generation chemotherapy:

While targeted therapies are expected to grow rapidly, it is chemotherapy agents which are leading the current market. One notable success of recent years is Roche's Xeloda, which is replacing 5-FU in the US and EU, where it has been approved as a first-line treatment in gastric cancer since March 2007. With US patents in force until 2013, Xeloda is the only branded chemotherapeutic for gastric cancer not facing generic competition at present.

The rise of targeted therapies:

Espicom believes that by 2017, targeted therapies will account for over 60% of the gastric cancer market. Competition for Herceptin will initially come from GSK's Tykerb/Tyverb, but Roche's Avastin, Merck's Erbitux and Lilly's ramucirumab are just some of those waiting in the wings over the coming period. One of the most promising candidates is Bayer's Nexavar where very promising PII trial results have given optimism for its prospects.

Critical Business Insights from this report which:

- Provides independent, reliable 7-year forecasts, market share and unique product scoring which give you real insights to the current and future business landscape

- Evaluates the competitive environment – assess winners and losers and know their pipeline content and status

- Covers major launched products and significant pipeline candidates

- Identifies promising mid-stage development candidates

- Forecasts the launch timeframe for new products or indications

- Summarises current clinical thinking on gastric cancer

EXCUTIVE SUMMARY

MARKET ANALYSIS
Current Market
Next-Generation Chemotherapy
Targeted Therapy
Future Market

SALE FORECAST

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
Competitor Ratio Analysis

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
VEGF Pathway Inhibitors
EGFr Inhibitors
Other Targeted Therapies of Interest
Chemotherapy

BACK ROUND INFORMATION
What is Gastric Cancer?
The Stages of Gastric Cancer
Survival Rates
Risk Factors for Gastric Cancer
Preventing Gastric Cancer
Current Treatments
Surgery
Chemotherapy
Radiation Therapy
Why are New Treatments Needed?
Patient Statistics

GASTRIC CANCER PRODUCT

TARGETED THERAPIES
Approved Products
Herceptin

Phase III Products
Afinitor
Avastin
Erbitux
Ramucirumab
Tykerb/Tyverb

Phase II Products
AMG 102
AMG 386
ARQ 197
AUY922
GDC-0449
Nexavar
Nimotuzumab
Olaparib
Telatinib
Tremelimumab
TSU-68
Vectibix

Phase I Products
Axitinib
BMS-833923
Brivanib
CUDC-101
Recentin
Vandetanib

CHEMOTHERAPY

Approved Products
Taxotere
Teysuno
Xeloda

Phase II Products
Alimta
Ixempra
Tesetaxel

APPENDIX
Phase Transition Probability
Source Material

LIST OF TABLES:

The Potential Launch Landscape for Gastric Cancer
Gastric Cancer Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
Competitor Ratio Analysis Scores
Drugs in Clinical Development for Gastric Cancer
TNM Stage Grouping
Five-year Gastric Cancer Survival Rates (US)
Targeted Therapies for Gastric Cancer
Chemotherapy for Gastric Cancer
Herceptin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Herceptin Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Afinitor Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Avastin Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Erbitux Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Erbitux Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Ramucirumab Sales by Indication (2014-2017)
Tykerb/Tyverb Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Studies in Metastatic CRC with EGFr-Targeting Monoclonal Antibodies in Irinotecan-Refractory Patients
Safety Profiles of Leading Anti-EGFr Products and Nimotuzumab
Efficacy of Docetaxel in the Treatment of NSCLC Patients Previously Treated with a Platinum-Based CT Regimen (Intent-to-Treat Analysis)
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
S-1 Sales (2009-2017)
Xeloda Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Probability of Launch

LIST OF CHARTS:

Gastric Cancer Sales by Therapy (2010)
Market Share by Product (2010)
Market Share of Gastric Cancer Therapies (2010)
Market Share of Gastric Cancer Therapies (2017)
Market Share by Product (2017)
Major Players in Gastric Cancer by Market Share (2010)
Major Players in Gastric Cancer by Market Share (2017)
Competitor Ratio Analysis Scores
HER2 Signalling Pathway
Herceptin Sales (2009-2017)
Afinitor Mode of Action
Afinitor Sales (2009-2017)
Avastin Mode of Action
Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Avastin Sales by Indication, 2010
Avastin Sales by Indication, 2017
Erbitux Sales (2009-2017)
Ramucirumab Sales (2014-2017)
Tykerb/Tyverb Total Sales (2009-2017)
Tykerb Sales by Indication, 2017
AUY922 Mode of Action Within a Cancer Cell
Nexavar's Dual Mode of Action
Schematic of EGFr Inhibition in Tumourigenesis
TAX 317 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Best Supportive Care
TAX 320 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Vinorelbine or Ifosfamide Control
Taxotere Sales (2009-2017)
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2010)
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2017)
S-1 Sales (2009-2017)
Xeloda Sales (2009-2017)
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2010)
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2017)

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