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Cambodia and Laos Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Feb 2011, Pages: 93
The Cambodia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cambodia's telecommunications industry.
This quarter’s update on the Cambodia and Lao telecoms markets includes an extension of the forecasts for mobile, fixed-line and internet for the five year period ended 2015. BMI has also revised expectations for the Cambodian mobile market following the latest data available for November 2010 as published by local reports and also with operational data for September 2010, as provided by the three operators: TeliaSonera, Axiata and VimpelCom.
According to data provided by the Ministry of Posts and Communications (MPCT), there were a total of 6.3mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2009, representing y-o-y growth of 65.8%. This represented mobile penetration rates of about 43%. More recent data, as published by local media reports and quoting MPCT as its source indicate that as of November 2010, Metfone, Mobitel and hello accounted for a combined 6.47mn subscribers, equivalent to a 75% market share. On this basis, we calculate that the total mobile market reached 8.134mn subscribers by the end of 2010.
In addition it was noted that Metfone, owned by Viettel, had overtaken Mobitel to become the market leader in Cambodia. Metfone claimed to have 2.84mn subscribers as of November 2010, compared to Mobitel’s 2.73mn subscribers. The latter operator has been struggling in terms of financing and announced in November 2010 that it was looking to offload a major stake in its operations to help refinance debt and expand its network. However, the operator was able to sign a refinancing deal with the Bank of China, which resulted in Mobitel saying it would sell a minor stake in its operations. Further, interest from two foreign entities, France Telecom and Telkom of Indonesia indicates they are looking for a major stake in the operator.
Meanwhile, Cambodia’s mobile market is set for consolidation with StarCell, owned by TeliaSonera, and Smart Mobile aiming to merge. The operators jointly announced they would aim to provide services under the Smart Mobile brand and their combined operations would result in a total of 850,000 mobile subscribers. However, the merger is still awaiting approval from the country’s regulatory authorities. Laos saw its position in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific Business Environment Ratings table improve, rising to 13th place out of a total of 18 countries assessed from 15th position in the previous quarter. The country overtook Cambodia, with a composite score of 48.1, and largely due to a change in its Industry Rewards and Country Risk score. The country’s Industry Rewards score fell to 40.5 from 45 in the quarter. The decline reflects there is considerable room for growth in the Laos telecoms market. Laos’ Country Risk score reached 49.9 in the quarter, compared to just 14.9. The improvement relates to an improved economic outlook. Average real GDP growth is targeted at 8% over the next five years with a GDP per capita target of above US$1700 by 2015.
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