Germany Telecommunications Report Q1 2011

The Germany Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's telecommunications industry.

BMI’s Q111 update on Germany’s telecommunications market provides comprehensive coverage of recent developments in the country’s mobile, fixed voice and broadband sectors. This quarter sees several changes to the five-year growth forecasts for Germany’s broadband and mobile subscriber markets. At the end of September 2010, Germany’s mobile market had about 107.102mn subscribers, reflecting a net loss of 610,000 subscribers in the third quarter of the year. As in the first and second quarters of 2010, market leader T-Mobile was chiefly responsible for the shrinking mobile subscriber base.

In Q310, TMobile moved to deduct inactive prepaid customers from its reported total for the third consecutive quarter. By comparison, the three other mobile operators – Vodafone Germany, E-Plus and Telefonica O2 Germany – all reported strong net additions in the quarter. Despite this, all three operators continued to report worsening subscriber mixes, pointing to a vigorous drive at attracting prepaid customers to boost market share.

Going forward, it is likely that strong prepaid customer growth will continue to characterise the German mobile market. One of the phenomena which are responsible for this trend is the high number of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) in the sector. In October 2010, the mobile market saw the arrival of two new MVNOs: Turkey’s largest mobile operator Turkcell plans to offer mobile services in partnership with Deutsche Telekom, while German cable operator Kabel BW has partnered with Telefonica O2 for the launch of its MVNO offering. Germany’s network operators include the customers of MVNOs using their network when reporting their own subscriber totals.

In previous updates, BMI noted that three of Germany’s mobile network operators – Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and O2 – were awarded new mobile frequencies in the 800MHz spectrum range in May 2010. Since then, all three operators have begun deploying Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks, with a view to extending mobile broadband services to remote parts of Germany. In November 2010, Vodafone announced it had deployed LTE technology in nine locations in four federal states. The operator plans to cover around 1,500 communities via the 4G mobile broadband network by the end of March 2011. In September 2010, Telefonica O2 announced the launch of its first pilot LTE network in Munich.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Telekom is working with Nokia Siemens Networks for the deployment of its LTE network; the incumbent operator planned to launch its network before the end of 2010. Although the internet user forecast for Germany remains broadly unchanged this quarter, BMI has upwardly revised the estimate for the number of broadband subscribers in the country. The main reason for our higher estimate is the incorporation into the forecasts of new data for the number of mobile broadband subscribers. These are broadband subscribers who use netbooks, smartphones and USB sticks to connect to the internet wirelessly via a high-speed (3G/HSPA) network. BMI estimates that Germany had 27.38mn broadband subscribers at the end of 2009, equivalent to a penetration rate of 33.4%. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Mobile SWOT
Germany Wireline SWOT
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Germany Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment
Western European Markets
Germany
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Ratings Q111
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts

Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Subscriber Divisions
Table: Germany Mobile Network Operator Subscriber Mix Q310
Table: German Mobile Market, Q310

Market Shares
ARPU
Table: German Blended ARPU, 2007-2010 (EUR/user/month)
MVNOs
3G
LTE (4G)
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
SMS
Mobile VoIP
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Germany Mobile Market Overview
Table: Vodafone
Table: T-Mobile
Table: E-Plus
Table: O2
Fixed Line
Table: German Fixed-Line Market (mn)
VoIP
Broadband
Market Consolidation
Incumbent Operations
Pay-TV
VDSL
Cable
Table: Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Germany Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Competition
Licensing
Interconnection
Local Loop Unbundling
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Germany Telecoms Sector
Company Monitor
Huawei Muscles In
Table: Huawei Technologies: Key Western European Contracts Awarded

Company Profiles
Deutsche Telekom
T-Mobile International
Vodafone Germany
E-Plus
Telefónica O2 Germany

Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Germany Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages

Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources

- Deutsche Telekom
- T-Mobile International
- Vodafone Germany
- E-Plus
- Telefónica O2 Germany