Iran Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, February 2011, Pages: 52
The Iran Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's power industry.
BMI forecasts that Iran will account for 14.79% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced market if nuclear generation plans proceed uninterrupted. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). BMI is forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 90.8% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 192TWh, or 16.85% of the regional total.
By 2015, the country is expected to account for 14.45% of regional thermal generation.
Gas will have been the dominant fuel in Iran in 2010, accounting for an estimated 57.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.4% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED. Nuclear power should make its first contribution during 2011. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. Iran’s estimated 2010 market share of 22.38% is set to ease to 21.21% by 2015. Iran’s nuclear demand is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2015, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 38.46%.
Iran holds eighth place above Algeria and Kuwait in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings. This is largely a reflection of its market size. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme. BMI sees little scope for a recovery from this quarter’s 39-point score.
BMI now forecasts that Iran’s real GDP growth will average 2.00% a year between 2010 and 2015, with 2011 growth assumed to be 1.30%. The population is expected to expand from 73.9mn to 78.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 31% and 5% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 161TWh in 2010 to 179TWh by 2015, providing a broadly balanced market, assuming 2.2% average annual growth in electricity generation. The success of the nuclear programme will have a major influence on generation growth.
Between 2010 and 2020 BMI forecasts a 25.5% increase in Iranian electricity generation, near the bottom of the MEA range. This equates to 11.9% in 2015-2020, down from 12.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 14.4% in 2010-2015 to 12.6%, representing 28.8% for the entire forecast period. From 2011, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 19% between 2010 and 2020. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Iran Power Business Environment SWOT
Iran Political SWOT
Iran Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
Global
Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015
Middle East And Africa Region
Table: Middle East And Africa Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
Table: Middle East And Africa Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Market Overview
Primary Energy Demand
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Power Transmission
Business Environment
Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Power Business Environment Rating
Iran’s Power Rating
Iran’s Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Iran’s Power Outlook
Generation
Gas-Fired
Oil-Fired
Coal-Fired
Nuclear Energy
Hydro-Electric
Renewable Energy
Power Costs
Transmission
Table: Iran’s Power Sector, 2008-2015
Table: Iran’s Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Iran’s Non-Thermal Power, 2008-2015
Table: Iran’s Power Costs, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
Assumptions And Methodology
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Iran – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Snapshot
Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020
Regional Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe)
Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
Iran Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Power Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
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