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Italy Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Feb 2011, Pages: 41
The Italy Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Italy's power industry.
The new Italy Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.11% of developed markets power generation by 2015, with a sizeable supply shortfall after system losses and power industry usage. BMI’s developed markets power generation estimate for 2010 is 7,270 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 1.7% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 7,794TWh between 2010 and 2015, representing an increase of 7.2%.
BMI estimates that thermal power generation in 2010 will have been 4,267TWh, accounting for 58.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 4,448TWh, implying 4.23% growth that leaves the market share of thermal generation only slightly lower at 57.1% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Italy’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 234TWh, or 5.49% of the regional total.
By 2015, the country is expected to account for 5.55% of thermal generation.
For Italy, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 44.9% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 38.4%, coal at 8.0% and hydro-power with a 6.3% share of PED. Developed markets energy demand is forecast to reach 4,023mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 7.31% growth in 2010-2015. Italy’s estimated 2010 market share of 4.51% is set to ease to 4.42% by 2015. Italy’s estimated 46.5TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 48.0TWh by 2015, with its share of the Developed Markets hydro market easing from 4.81% to 4.59% over the period.
BMI is now forecasting 1.58% Italian real GDP growth between 2010 and 2015, and the 2011 forecast is a rise of 1.60%. Population is expected to expand slightly from 60.6mn to 60.8mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 15% and 9% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 296TWh in 2010 to 324TWh by the end of the forecast period. BMI is assuming 1.7% average annual growth in 2010-2015 power generation, leaving a potential 49TWh supply shortfall after system losses etc.
Between 2010 and 2020, BMI is forecasting an increase in Italian electricity generation of 19.53%, which is towards the middle of the range for the developed markets. This equates to 10.95% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 7.73% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to rise from 5.33% in 2010-2015 to 5.92% during 2014-2020, representing 11.57% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 18% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 20% between 2010 and 2020.
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