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Kenya Power Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Feb 2011, Pages: 58
The Kenya Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kenya's power industry.
In this new Kenya Power report, BMI forecaststhat the country will account for just 0.69% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2015, with efforts to diversify supply away from hydroelectricity. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). BMI is forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. The forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 90.8% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kenya’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2.3TWh, or 0.20% of the regional total.
By 2015, the country is expected to account for 0.28% of regional thermal generation.
Direct burning of wood and waste materials, plus some renewables-based power generation, will have been the dominant energy source for Kenya in 2010, accounting for an estimated 78% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 20% and hydro with a near 2% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. Kenya’s estimated 2010 market share of 2.18% is set to reach 2.45% by 2015.
Kenya now holds fifth place, above Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings. Its position is vulnerable given the modest size of the market. Growth prospects are good and the proportion of renewables is the highest in the region. However, import dependency is also high and the power sector is not particularly competitive, with limited progress towards privatisation. BMI forecasts that Kenya’s real GDP growth will average 5.40% a year between 2010 and 2015, with 2011 growth forecast to be 5.30%. The population is expected to expand from 40.9mn to 46.5mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 94% and 34% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 6.3TWh in 2010 to 9.6TWh by 2015, providing an improvement in market coverage on the basis of 6.3% average annual growth in electricity generation over 2010-2015. Losses of more than 1TWh during power transmission and distribution mean the market is likely to remain tight for several years.
Between 2010 and 2020, BMI forecasts a 84.4% increase in Kenyan electricity generation, in the top half of the regional range. This equates to 35.2% growth in 2015-2020, down from 36.4% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 35.7% in 2010-2015 to 24.1% in 2015-2020, representing 68.3% for the entire forecast period. From 2014, the availability of coal-fired power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 117% between 2010 and 2020.
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