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North Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2011
Business Monitor International, Feb 2011, Pages: 81
The North Africa Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on North Africa's telecommunications industry.
The Q1 2011 update of BMI’s North Africa Telecommunications report contains revised five-year growth forecasts for the fixed-line telephony, mobile user and internet subscriber sectors of four countries: Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. Incorporating the latest operator and, in some cases, regulatory data, the forecasts have also been extended to 2015. However, as year-to-date growth in all sectors appears to have been within BMI's expectations, there are few real changes to the existing forecast suites.
Key developments of significance to the region’s telecoms markets include confirmation of France Télécom's (Orange) purchase of a 40% stake in Morocco's second-largest mobile operator, Meditel. The French company plans to significantly boost its mobile broadband operations in key African economies over the next five years and we expect to see increased investments directed at the operator's 3G network. We may also see a new branding and pricing strategy that could provide the Moroccan mobile market with additional growth stimulus. 3G services have become a major battleground for Morocco’s three mobile network operators and mobile broadband services appear to be driving the expansion of the country’s broadband sector.
Orange enjoyed a successful Q210, buoyed by the launch of its 3G service in Tunisia. However, growth was muted in Q310, possibly because rival mobile operators – which do not yet offer 3G services – have responded to the new competitor by offering promotional and discounted services. Orange's success may also be undermined by the Tunisian government's decision to award a 3G licence to incumbent Tunisie Télécom and to list the operator on two stock markets (local and international). Access to additional funds would make it more difficult for Orange to gain traction, despite its obvious first mover advantages.
In Algeria, the government seems set to buy out its Egyptian partner in mobile market leader Djezzy, after Orascom Telecom agreed to be bought out. The government's relationship with Orascom has been fractious and the state is still trying to claim substantial unpaid taxes from the company. The prospect of Djezzy joining Mobilis as a state-owned business is alarming because of the impact this development may have on the competitive environment. It is unclear whether the two businesses would be combined or whether the government would look for a new foreign partner. However, considering its treatment of Orascom, we believe many potential investors would be cautious.
Finally, this update sees no material changes to our business environment ratings for the four North African markets, Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia, although a weaker score by Egypt meant Tunisia was able to move up one place. All four North African countries continue to hold positions in the lower half of the table.
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