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The 2011 Report on Beverage Manufacturing: World Market Segmentation by City

Description:
Market Potential Estimation Methodology Overview This study covers the world outlook for beverage manufacturing across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for beverage manufacturing. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business. What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability). The latent demand for beverage manufacturing is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market. Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln. For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand. As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for beverage manufacturing at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand. The Methodology In order to estimate the latent demand for beverage manufacturing on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question. Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant. Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for beverage manufacturing across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for beverage manufacturing. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences). Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for beverage manufacturing. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just beverage manufacturing. Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets). The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany. Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “beverage manufacturing” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within beverage manufacturing falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place). Given this caveat, this study covers “beverage manufacturing” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). beverage manufacturing The NAICS code for beverage manufacturing is 3121. It is for this definition of beverage manufacturing that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Beverage manufacturing” is specifically defined as follows: 3121 Beverage Manufacturing  31211 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) manufacturing soft drinks; (2) manufacturing ice; and (3) purifying and bottling water.  312111 This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing soft drinks and artificially carbonated waters.  3121111 Bottled carbonated soft drinks  31211111 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in refillable glass bottles (regular and diet)  3121111111 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in refillable glass bottles (regular and diet)  31211112 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in refillable glass bottles (regular and diet)  3121111200 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in refillable glass bottles (regular and diet) (value of quantity detail)  3121111221 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice, in refillable glass bottles  3121111231 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing kola extract, except those with some real juice, in refillable glass bottles  3121111241 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_ lime combinations, except those with some real juice, in refillable glass bottles  3121111251 Other regular bottled carbonated soft drink flavors (including carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda, except those with some real juice) in refillable glass bottles  3121111261 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice, in refillable glass bottles  3121111271 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing kola extract, except those with some real juice, in refillable glass bottles  3121111281 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_lime combinations, except those with some real juice, in refillable glass bottles  3121111291 Other diet bottled carbonated soft drink flavors (including carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda, except those with some real juice) in refillable glass bottles  31211113 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in non~refillable glass bottles (regular and diet)  31211113A1 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in non~refillable glass bottles (regular and diet)  31211114 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in non_refillable glass bottles (regular and diet)  3121111400 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in non_refillable glass bottles (regular and diet) (value of quantity detail)  31211114B1 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice, in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114C1 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing kola extract, except those with some real juice, in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114D1 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_ lime combinations, except those with some real juice, in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114E1 Carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda (except those with some real juice), in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114F1 Other regular bottled carbonated soft drink flavors, including club soda, except those with some real juice, in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114G1 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice, in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114H1 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing kola extract, except those with some real juice, in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114J1 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_lime combinations, except those with some real juice, in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211114K1 Other diet bottled carbonated soft drink flavors (including carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda, except those with some real juice) in nonrefillable glass bottles  31211115 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in plastics bottles (regular and diet)  3121111511 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in plastics bottles (regular and diet)  31211116 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in plastics bottles (regular and diet)  3121111600 Bottled carbonated soft drinks in plastics bottles (regular and diet) (value of quantity detail)  31211116L1 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice, in plastic bottles  31211116M1 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing kola extract, except those with some real juice, in plastic bottles  31211116N1 Regular bottled carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_ lime combinations, except those with some real juice, in plastic bottles  31211116P1 Carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda (except those with some real juice), in plastic bottles  31211116Q1 Other regular bottled carbonated soft drink flavors, including club soda, except those with some real juice, in plastic bottles  31211116R1 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice, in plastic bottles  31211116T1 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing kola extract, except those with some real juice, in plastic bottles  31211116U1 Diet bottled carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_lime combinations, except those with some real juice, in plastic bottles  31211116V1 Other diet bottled carbonated soft drink flavors (including carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda, except those with some real juice) in plastics bottles  3121114 Canned carbonated soft drinks  31211141 Canned carbonated soft drinks  3121114100 Canned carbonated soft drinks (value of quantity detail)  3121114111 Regular canned carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice  3121114121 Regular canned carbonated soft drinks containing kola extract, except those with some real juice  3121114131 Regular canned carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_ lime combinations, except those with some real juice  3121114141 Carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda, except those with some real juice, canned  3121114151 Other regular canned carbonated soft drink flavors  3121114161 Diet canned carbonated soft drinks containing some real juice  3121114171 Diet canned carbonated soft drinks containing kola extracts, except those with some real juice  3121114181 Diet canned carbonated soft drinks containing lemon, lime, and lemon_lime combinations, except those with some real juice  3121114191 Diet canned carbonated waters, sparkling waters, and club soda, except those with some real juice  31211141A1 Other diet canned carbonated soft drink flavors  3121117 Soft drink flavoring syrup sold in bulk  31211171 Soft drink flavoring syrup sold in bulk  3121117111 Soft drink flavoring syrup sold in bulk, postmix  3121117121 Soft drink flavoring syrup sold in bulk, premix  312111A Noncarbonated soft drinks, incl fruit drinks, cocktails and ades  312111A1 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades containing some real juice, 16.9 oz (1/2 liter) container or less, except concentrates  312111A111 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades containing some real juice, 16.9 oz (1/2 liter) container or less, except concentrates  312111A2 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades containing some real juice, in other size containers (cartons, bottles, cans, etc.), except concentrates  312111A221 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades containing some real juice, in other size containers (cartons, bottles, cans, etc.), except concentrates  312111A3 All other non_carbonated soft drinks  312111A331 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades concentrates containing some real juice  312111A341 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades, containing no real juice, 16.9 oz (1/2 liter) container or less, except concentrates  312111A351 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades, containing no real juice, in other size containers (cartons, bottles, cans, etc.), except concentrates  312111A361 Non_carbonated fruit drinks, cocktails, and ades concentrates containing no real juice  312111A371 Canned iced tea (non_carbonated), with or without flavorings  312111A381 Bottled iced tea, with or without flavorings  312111A391 All other non_carbonated soft drinks  312111M Miscellaneous receipts  312111P Primary products  312111S Secondary products  312111SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts  312112 This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in purifying and bottling water (including naturally carbonated).  3121120 BOTTLED WATER MANUFACTURING  31211201 Bottled water  3121120100 Bottled water (noncarbonated), processed or pasteurized, except artificially carbonated and sterile  3121120111 Bottled water (noncarbonated), processed or pasteurized, except natural spring, artificially carbonated, mineral, distilled, and sterile  3121120121 Bottled water manufacturing, including natural spring water, mineral water, and distilled water  3121121 Bottled water  312112M Miscellaneous receipts  312112P Primary products  312112S Secondary products  312112SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts  312113 This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing ice.  3121130 ICE MANUFACTURING  31211301 Ice manufacturing  3121130111 Manufactured can or block ice  3121130121 Manufactured cubed, crushed, or other processed ice  312113M Miscellaneous receipts  312113P Primary products  312113S Secondary products  312113SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts  31212 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in brewing beer, ale, malt liquors, and nonalcoholic beer.  312120 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in brewing beer, ale, malt liquors, and nonalcoholic beer.  3121201 Canned beer and ale case goods  31212011 Canned beer and ale case goods, 12 oz cans  3121201111 Canned beer and ale case goods, 12 oz cans  31212012 Canned beer and ale case goods, other can sizes  3121201221 Canned beer and ale case goods, 16 oz cans  3121201231 Canned beer and ale case goods, other can sizes  3121202 Bottled beer and ale case goods  3121203 Beer and ale in barrels and kegs  3121204 All other malt beverages and brewing products  31212041 Bottled beer and ale case goods in returnable bottles  3121204111 Bottled beer case goods in returnable bottles less than 12 oz  3121204121 Bottled beer case goods in returnable 12 oz bottles  3121204131 Bottled beer case goods in returnable 32 oz bottles  3121204141 Bottled beer case goods in all other returnable bottle sizes  31212042 Bottled beer case goods in nonreturnable bottles  3121204251 Bottled beer case goods in nonreturnable bottles less than 12 oz  3121204261 Bottled beer case goods in nonreturnable 12 oz bottles  3121204271 Bottled beer case goods in nonreturnable 32 oz bottles  3121204281 Bottled beer case goods in all other nonreturnable bottle sizes  3121204291 Bottled ale case goods  3121207 BEER AND ALE IN BARRELS AND KEGS  31212071 Beer and ale in barrels and kegs  3121207111 Beer and ale in one_half barrel size  3121207121 Beer and ale in other barrel sizes  3121209 ALL OTHER MALT BEVERAGES AND BREWING PRODUCTS  31212091 All other malt beverages and brewing products  3121209111 Nonalcoholic beer  3121209121 Malt liquors, in either cans or bottles  3121209131 Dry brewers’ spent grains  3121209141 Wet brewers’ spent grains  3121209153 Malt extracts  3121209155 All other malt beverages and brewing products (porter, stout, bulk transfers, malt syrup, etc.)  312120A ALL OTHER MALT BEVERAGES AND BREWING PRODUCTS, NEC  312120A1 All other malt beverages and brewing products  312120A111 Nonalcoholic beer cases  312120A121 Malt liquors, in either cans or bottles cases  312120A131 Dry brewers’ spent grains  312120A141 Wet brewers’ spent grains  312120A151 All other malt beverages and brewery products (porter, stout, etc., bulk transfers, malt extracts, malt syrup)  312120M Miscellaneous receipts  312120P Primary products  312120S Secondary products  312120SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts  31213 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) growing grapes and manufacturing wine and brandies; (2) manufacturing wine and brandies from grapes and other fruits grown elsewhere; and (3) blending wines and brandies.  312130 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) growing grapes and manufacturing wine and brandies; (2) manufacturing wine and brandies from grapes and other fruits grown elsewhere; and (3) blending wines and brandies.  3121300 WINE, BRANDY, AND BRANDY SPIRITS  31213001 White grape wines, 14 percent or less  3121300111 White grape wines, 14 percent or less  31213002 Red grape wines, 14 percent or less  3121300221 Red grape wines, 14 percent or less  31213003 Rose grape wines, 14 percent or less  3121300331 Rose grape wines, 14 percent or less  31213004 Other fruit and berry wines, 14 percent or less  3121300441 Other fruit and berry wines, 14 percent or less  31213005 Dessert wines (excluding specialties)  3121300551 Dessert wines (excluding specialties)  31213006 Effervescent wines, including sparkling wines (naturally and artificially carbonated)  3121300661 Effervescent wines, including sparkling wines (naturally and artificially carbonated)  31213007 Wine coolers  3121300771 Wine coolers  31213008 All other wines, brandy, and brandy spirits  3121300881 Vermouth  3121300891 Other specialty wines  31213008A1 Nonalcoholic wine  31213008B1 Beverage brandy, neutral fruit spirits, and neutral brandy, excluding neutral citrus residue brandy  31213008C1 Wine removed from fermenters  31213009 Brandy and spirits removed from receiving tanks  31213009D1 Brandy and spirits removed from receiving tanks  3121300A All other wines, brandy, and brandy spirits  3121300AB1 Beverage brandy, neutral fruit spirits, and neutral brandy (excluding neutral citrus residue brandy)  3121300AD1 Applejack  3121300AE1 All other wines, brandy, and brandy spirits (including vermouth, nonalcoholic wines, and other specialty wines)  3121308 Wines, brandy, and brandy spirits  31213081 Grape wine with 14 percent or less alcohol content  312130812 White grape wine with 14 percent or less alcohol content  312130814 Red grape wine with 14 percent or less alcohol content  312130816 Rose grape wine with 14 percent or less alcohol content  312130825 Dessert wines  312130831 Effervescent wines  312130841 Non-grape fruit/berry wines, fortified wines (non-dessert), and specialty wines  312130883 Beverage brandy, neutral fruit spirits, and neutral brandy spirits  312130A Wines  312130M Miscellaneous receipts  312130P Primary products  312130S Secondary products  312130SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts  31214 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) distilling potable liquors (except brandies); (2) distilling and blending liquors; and (3) blending and mixing liquors and other ingredients.  312140 This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the following: (1) distilling potable liquors (except brandies); (2) distilling and blending liquors; and (3) blending and mixing liquors and other ingredients.  3121401 DISTILLED LIQUOR, EXCEPT BRANDY  31214011 Distilled whiskey, raw (bourbon, rye, etc.)  3121401111 Distilled whiskey, raw (bourbon, rye, etc.)  31214012 All other distilled liquor, except brandy  3121401221 Distilled grain neutral spirits, including neutral citrus residue brandy  3121401223 Distilled vodka (including original and continuous distillation or processing operations)  3121401241 Other distilled liquors, including rum, gin, and cane neutral spirits  31214013 Distillers’ dried grains, dark and light, and dried solubles  3121401351 Distillers’ dried grains, dark and light, and dried solubles  31214014 All other distilled liquor, except brandy  3121401421 Distilled grain neutral spirits, including neutral citrus residue brandy  3121401423 Distilled vodka (including original and continuous distillation or processing operations)  3121401443 Other distilled liquors, including rum, gin, and cane neutral spirits, except applejack  3121404 BOTTLED LIQUOR, EXCEPT BRANDY  31214041 Bottled unprocessed whiskey  3121404111 Bottled unprocessed whiskey  31214042 Bottled blends of whiskey without neutral spirits  3121404221 Bottled blends of whiskey without neutral spirits  31214043 Bottled blends of whiskey with neutral spirits  3121404331 Bottled blends of whiskey with neutral spirits  31214044 Other bottled whiskey  3121404441 Other bottled whiskey  31214045 Bottled gin  3121404551 Bottled gin  31214046 Bottled cordials, liqueurs  3121404661 Bottled cordials, liqueurs  31214047 Bottled cocktails and similar compounds  3121404771 Bottled cocktails and similar compounds  31214048 Bottled vodka  3121404881 Bottled vodka  31214049 All other bottled liquor except brandy  3121404991 Bottled rum  31214049A1 Other bottled liquors (excluding bottled in bond)  31214049B1 Bottled in bond liquors  3121407 Bulk distilled liquors, except brandy, and distillers' dried grains  3121408 Bottled liquor, except brandy  312140801 Whiskey, including bottled in bond  312140822 Gin  312140825 Cordials, liqueurs  312140831 Vodka  312140899 Other bottled liquors, except brandy  312140M Miscellaneous receipts  312140MM Miscellaneous receipts  312140P Primary products  312140S Secondary products  312140SM Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing Based on the aggregate view of beverage manufacturing as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries and cities as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or "filtered" from the analysis. Step 3. Filling in Missing Values In some cas
 
Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 1.1 Overview and Definitions 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 1.2.1 Overview 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 1.2.3 The Methodology 1.2.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 1.2.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 1.2.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 1.2.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 1.2.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 1.2.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 2 USING THE DATA 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 3.1 Top 15 Markets 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 5.1 Afghanistan 5.2 Albania 5.3 Algeria 5.4 American Samoa 5.5 Andorra 5.6 Angola 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 5.8 Argentina 5.9 Armenia 5.10 Aruba 5.11 Australia 5.12 Austria 5.13 Azerbaijan 5.14 Bahrain 5.15 Bangladesh 5.16 Barbados 5.17 Belarus 5.18 Belgium 5.19 Belize 5.20 Benin 5.21 Bermuda 5.22 Bhutan 5.23 Bolivia 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.25 Botswana 5.26 Brazil 5.27 Brunei 5.28 Bulgaria 5.29 Burkina Faso 5.30 Burma 5.31 Burundi 5.32 Cambodia 5.33 Cameroon 5.34 Canada 5.35 Cape Verde 5.36 Central African Republic 5.37 Chad 5.38 Chile 5.39 China 5.40 Christmas Island 5.41 Colombia 5.42 Comoros 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 5.44 Cook Islands 5.45 Costa Rica 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 5.47 Croatia 5.48 Cuba 5.49 Cyprus 5.50 Czech Republic 5.51 Denmark 5.52 Djibouti 5.53 Dominica 5.54 Dominican Republic 5.55 Ecuador 5.56 Egypt 5.57 El Salvador 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 5.59 Estonia 5.60 Ethiopia 5.61 Fiji 5.62 Finland 5.63 France 5.64 French Guiana 5.65 French Polynesia 5.66 Gabon 5.67 Georgia 5.68 Germany 5.69 Ghana 5.70 Greece 5.71 Greenland 5.72 Grenada 5.73 Guadeloupe 5.74 Guam 5.75 Guatemala 5.76 Guinea 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 5.78 Guyana 5.79 Haiti 5.80 Honduras 5.81 Hong Kong 5.82 Hungary 5.83 Iceland 5.84 India 5.85 Indonesia 5.86 Iran 5.87 Iraq 5.88 Ireland 5.89 Israel 5.90 Italy 5.91 Jamaica 5.92 Japan 5.93 Jordan 5.94 Kazakhstan 5.95 Kenya 5.96 Kiribati 5.97 Kuwait 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 5.99 Laos 5.100 Latvia 5.101 Lebanon 5.102 Lesotho 5.103 Liberia 5.104 Libya 5.105 Liechtenstein 5.106 Lithuania 5.107 Luxembourg 5.108 Macau 5.109 Madagascar 5.110 Malawi 5.111 Malaysia 5.112 Maldives 5.113 Mali 5.114 Malta 5.115 Marshall Islands 5.116 Martinique 5.117 Mauritania 5.118 Mauritius 5.119 Mexico 5.120 Micronesia Federation 5.121 Moldova 5.122 Monaco 5.123 Mongolia 5.124 Morocco 5.125 Mozambique 5.126 Namibia 5.127 Nauru 5.128 Nepal 5.129 New Caledonia 5.130 New Zealand 5.131 Nicaragua 5.132 Niger 5.133 Nigeria 5.134 Niue 5.135 Norfolk Island 5.136 North Korea 5.137 Norway 5.138 Oman 5.139 Pakistan 5.140 Palau 5.141 Palestine 5.142 Panama 5.143 Papua New Guinea 5.144 Paraguay 5.145 Peru 5.146 Philippines 5.147 Poland 5.148 Portugal 5.149 Puerto Rico 5.150 Qatar 5.151 Republic of Congo 5.152 Reunion 5.153 Romania 5.154 Russia 5.155 Rwanda 5.156 San Marino 5.157 Sao Tome E Principe 5.158 Saudi Arabia 5.159 Senegal 5.160 Seychelles 5.161 Sierra Leone 5.162 Singapore 5.163 Slovakia 5.164 Slovenia 5.165 Solomon Islands 5.166 Somalia 5.167 South Africa 5.168 South Korea 5.169 Spain 5.170 Sri Lanka 5.171 St. Kitts and Nevis 5.172 St. Lucia 5.173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 5.174 Sudan 5.175 Suriname 5.176 Swaziland 5.177 Sweden 5.178 Switzerland 5.179 Syrian Arab Republic 5.180 Taiwan 5.181 Tajikistan 5.182 Tanzania 5.183 Thailand 5.184 The Bahamas 5.185 The British Virgin Islands 5.186 The Cayman Islands 5.187 The Falkland Islands 5.188 The Gambia 5.189 The Netherlands 5.190 The Netherlands Antilles 5.191 The Northern Mariana Island 5.192 The U.S. Virgin Islands 5.193 The United Arab Emirates 5.194 The United Kingdom 5.195 The United States 5.196 Togo 5.197 Tokelau 5.198 Tonga 5.199 Trinidad and Tobago 5.200 Tunisia 5.201 Turkey 5.202 Turkmenistan 5.203 Tuvalu 5.204 Uganda 5.205 Ukraine 5.206 Uruguay 5.207 Uzbekistan 5.208 Vanuatu 5.209 Venezuela 5.210 Vietnam 5.211 Wallis and Futuna 5.212 Western Sahara 5.213 Western Samoa 5.214 Yemen 5.215 Zambia 5.216 Zimbabwe 6 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 6.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 6.2 ICON Group International, Inc. 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