Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for printing and related support activities across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for
the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for printing and related support activities. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for printing and related support activities is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for printing and related support activities at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for printing and related support activities on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for printing and related support activities across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for printing and related support activities. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for printing and related support activities. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just printing and related support activities.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “printing and related support activities” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within printing and related support activities falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “printing and related support activities” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). printing and related support activities The NAICS code for printing and related support activities is 3231. It is for this definition of printing and related support activities that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Printing and related support activities” is specifically defined as follows:
3231
Printing and Related Support Activities
32311
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in printing on apparel and textile products, paper, metal, glass, plastics, and other materials, except fabric (grey goods). The printing processes employed include, but are not limited to, lithographic, gravure, screen, flexographic, digital, and letterpress. Establishments in this industry do not manufacture the stock that they print but may perform postprinting activities, such as folding, cutting, or laminating the materials they print, and mailing.
323110
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in lithographic (i.e., offset) printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in lithographic printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, letterhead, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis.
3231101
Magazine and periodical printing (lithographic) (offset)
32311011
Magazine and periodical printing (lithographic), including magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers (excluding printing of newspaper advertising inserts)
3231101111
Magazine and periodical printing (lithographic), excluding magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers, sheet_fed
3231101113
Magazine and periodical printing (lithographic), excluding magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers, web_fed
3231101121
Magazine and comic supplement printing for Sunday newspapers (lithographic) (excluding printing of newspaper advertising inserts)
3231103
Label and wrapper printing (lithographic) (offset)
32311031
Label and wrapper printing (lithographic)
3231103111
Label printing (lithographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, flat (except pressure_sensitive)
3231103116
Label printing (lithographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, rolls (except pressure_sensitive)
3231103121
Label printing (lithographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, pressure_sensitive (self_adhesive)
3231103126
Label printing (lithographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of materials other than paper (including cloth)
3231103131
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (lithographic), made of paper (single_web)
3231103136
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (lithographic), made of materials other than paper, including multiweb structures
3231105
Catalog and directory printing (lithographic) (offset)
32311051
Catalog and directory printing (lithographic)
3231105111
Catalog printing (lithographic), including direct mail catalogs, sheet_fed
3231105113
Catalog printing (lithographic), including direct mail catalogs, web_fed
3231105121
Telephone directory printing (lithographic)
3231105126
Other directory printing (lithographic), including business reference services, sheet_fed
3231105128
Other directory printing (lithographic), including business reference services, web_fed
3231107
Financial and legal printing (lithographic) (offset)
32311071
Financial and legal printing (lithographic)
3231107111
SEC filing and prospectus printing (lithographic), sheet_fed
3231107113
SEC filing and prospectus printing (lithographic), web_fed
3231107121
Annual report and other corporate financial printing (lithographic), sheet_fed
3231107123
Annual report and other corporate financial printing (lithographic), web_fed
3231107131
Other financial and legal printing (lithographic), including insurance forms, briefs, etc. (except checkbooks), sheet_fed
3231107133
Other financial and legal printing (lithographic), including insurance forms, briefs, etc. (except checkbooks), web_fed
3231107141
Bank printing (lithographic), excluding bank forms and checkbooks, sheet_ fed
3231107143
Bank printing (lithographic), excluding bank forms and checkbooks, web_fed
3231107151
Bank form printing (lithographic), including passbooks, debit_credit slips, ledger and statement sheets, installment_loan coupons, etc. (except checkbooks)
3231109
Advertising printing (lithographic) (offset)
32311091
Direct mail advertising printing (lithographic) incl. circulars, cards, etc.
3231109111
Direct mail advertising printing (lithographic), including circulars, letters, pamphlets, cards, etc., sheet_fed
3231109113
Direct mail advertising printing (lithographic), including circulars, letters, pamphlets, cards, etc., web_fed
32311092
Advertising printing (lithographic) except direct mail advertising
3231109221
Display advertising poster printing (lithographic), including outdoor advertising, car cards, window, etc.
3231109226
Counter, floor display, point_of_purchase, and other advertising display material printing (lithographic), sheet_fed
3231109228
Counter, floor display, point_of_purchase, and other advertising display material printing (lithographic), web_fed
3231109236
Preprinted newspaper advertising insert printing (lithographic) (advertising supplements not regularly issued), rolls, including hi_fi and spectacolor
3231109241
Preprinted newspaper advertising insert printing (lithographic) (advertising supplements not regularly issued), sections (two pages or more)
3231109246
Shopping news printing (lithographic)
3231109251
Book jacket printing (lithographic)
3231109256
Other advertising printing (lithographic), including brochures, pamphlets, magazine inserts, etc., sheet_fed
3231109258
Other advertising printing (lithographic), including brochures, pamphlets, magazine inserts, etc., web_fed
323110B
General job printing, nec (lithographic) (offset)
323110B1
Other commercial and general job printing (lithographic)
323110B111
Newspaper printing (lithographic)
323110B116
Scientific and technical recording chart and chart paper printing (lithographic)
323110B121
Map, atlas, and globe cover printing (lithographic), including road maps and strip maps
323110B126
Calendar and calendar pad printing (lithographic), sheet_fed
323110B128
Calendar and calendar pad printing (lithographic), web_fed
323110B136
Ticket, coupon, and food and beverage check printing (lithographic), including transportation and amusement
323110B141
Playing card printing (lithographic)
323110B146
Printed decalcomanias and pressure_sensitives (self_adhesive) (lithographic), including bumper stickers, etc., excluding labels
323110B151
Lithographic printing on metal
323110B156
Credit and identification card printing (lithographic) (plastics, paper laminations, etc.)
323110B161
Business card printing (lithographic)
323110B166
Business form printing, (lithographic), excluding manifold, financial, and legal forms, blankbooks, and looseleaf forms, sheet_fed
323110B168
Business form printing, (lithographic), excluding manifold, financial, and legal forms, blankbooks, and looseleaf forms, web_fed
323110B176
Art reproduction and picture print printing (lithographic)
323110B181
Greeting cards, printed for publication by others (lithographic)
323110B191
All other commercial and general job printing (lithographic), including customized stationary, sheet_fed
323110B193
All other commercial and general job printing (lithographic), including customized stationary, web_fed
323110M
Miscellaneous receipts
323110P
Primary products
323110S
Secondary products
323110SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
323111
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in gravure printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in gravure printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, letterhead, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis.
3231111
Magazine and periodical printing, gravure
32311111
Magazine and periodical printing (gravure), including magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers (excluding printing of newspaper advertising inserts)
3231111100
Magazine and periodical printing (gravure), including magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers (excluding printing of newspaper advertising inserts)
3231111111
Magazine and periodical printing (gravure), excluding magazine and comic supplements for Sunday newspapers
3231111116
Magazine and comic supplement printing (gravure) for Sunday newspapers
3231112
Label and wrapper printing, gravure
3231113
Catalog and directory printing, gravure
32311131
Label printing (gravure)
3231113111
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, flat (except pressure_sensitive)
3231113116
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, rolls (except pressure_sensitive)
3231113121
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, pressure_sensitive (self_adhesive)
3231113126
Label printing (gravure), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of materials other than paper (including cloth)
32311132
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (gravure)
3231113231
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (gravure), made of paper (single_web)
3231113236
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (gravure), made of materials other than paper, including multiweb structures
3231115
Advertising printing, gravure
32311151
Catalog and directory printing (gravure)
3231115100
Catalog and directory printing (gravure)
3231116
Other commercial printing, gravure
3231117
ADVERTISING PRINTING (GRAVURE)
32311171
Advertising printing (gravure)
3231117111
Direct mail advertising printing (gravure), including circulars, letters, pamphlets, cards, and printed envelopes
3231117116
Preprinted newspaper advertising insert printing (gravure) (advertising supplements not regularly issued)
3231117121
Other advertising printing (gravure), including advertising display materials, shopping news, brochures, pamphlets, book jackets, magazine inserts, etc.
3231119
OTHER COMMERCIAL AND GENERAL JOB PRINTING (GRAVURE)
32311191
Other commercial and general job printing (gravure)
3231119100
All other commercial and general job printing (gravure), including customized stationary
3231119111
Printed decalcomanias and pressure~sensitives (self~adhesive) (gravure), including bumper stickers, etc., except labels
3231119191
All other general commercial gravure printing, nec, including customized stationery and business cards
323111M
Miscellaneous receipts
323111P
Primary products
323111S
Secondary products
323111SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
323112
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in flexographic printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in flexographic printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis.
3231121
Label and wrapper printing, flexographic
32311211
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, flat (except pressure_sensitive)
3231121111
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, flat (except pressure_sensitive)
32311212
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, rolls (except pressure_sensitive)
3231121216
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, rolls (except pressure_sensitive)
32311213
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, pressure_sensitive, flat
3231121321
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, pressure_sensitive, flat
32311214
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, pressure_sensitive, rolls
3231121426
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of paper, pressure_sensitive, rolls
32311215
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of materials other than paper (including cloth)
3231121531
Label printing (flexographic), custom and stock labels, including bordered, made of materials other than paper (including cloth)
32311216
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (flexographic), made of paper (single_web)
3231121636
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (flexographic), made of paper (single_web)
32311217
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (flexographic), made of polyethylene (single_web)
3231121741
Printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (flexographic), made of polyethylene (single_web)
32311218
Other printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (flexographic), including multiweb structures
3231121846
Other printed rolls and sheets for packaging purposes (printing only) (flexographic), including multiweb structures
3231123
Flexographic printing, n.e.c.
32311231
Magazine, periodical, and Sunday comic and supplement printing (flexographic)
3231123111
Magazine and periodical printing (flexographic)
3231123116
Magazine and comic supplement printing (flexographic) for Sunday newspapers
32311232
Flexographic printing, nec (excluding labels and wrappers)
3231123221
Financial and legal printing (flexographic), including annual corporate reports, bank printing, etc.
3231123226
Advertising printing (flexographic), including direct mail, display, preprinted newspaper inserts, book jackets
3231123231
Shopping news printing (flexographic)
3231123236
Newspaper printing (flexographic), except shopping news
3231123291
All other flexographic printing, nec
32311233
Other commercial and general job printing (flexographic)
3231123321
Financial and legal printing (flexographic), including annual corporate reports, bank printing, etc.
3231123326
Advertising printing (flexographic), including direct mail, display, magazine and preprinted newspaper inserts, brochures, pamphlets, etc.
3231123392
All other commercial and general job printing (flexographic), including customized stationary
323112M
Miscellaneous receipts
323112P
Primary products
323112S
Secondary products
323112SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
323113
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in screen printing without publishing (except books, grey goods, and manifold business forms). This industry includes establishments engaged in screen printing on purchased stock materials, such as stationery, invitations, labels, and similar items, on a job order basis. Establishments primarily engaged in printing on apparel and textile products, such as T-shirts, caps, jackets, towels, and napkins, are included in this industry.
3231131
Screen printing, except on textiles
32311311
Screen printed labels
3231131111
Screen printed paper labels, custom and stock, including bordered, pressure~ sensitive, flat
3231131112
Screen printed labels
3231131116
Screen printed paper labels, custom and stock, including bordered, pressure~ sensitive, rolls
3231131121
Other screen printed paper labels, custom and stock, including bordered
3231131126
Screen printed labels made of materials other than paper or cloth, custom and stock, including bordered
3231131181
Screen printed greeting cards, printed for publication by others
32311312
Screen printed advertising materials
3231131211
Screen printed advertising materials
3231131231
Screen printed advertising display posters (including outdoor advertising, car cards, window, etc.)
3231131236
Screen printed advertising display material (including counter, floor display, point_of_purchase, and other printed advertising display material), except display posters
3231131241
Other screen printed advertising material (including book jackets, brochures, pamphlets, etc.), except display
32311313
Screen printed decalcomanias and pressure_sensitives (self_adhesive) (including bumper stickers, etc.), except labels
3231131346
Screen printed decalcomanias and pressure sensitives (self-adhesive)
32311314
Screen printing, nec, except on textiles
3231131411
Screen printing, nec, except on textiles
3231131451
Screen printing on metal
3231131456
Screen printing on glass or plastics containers for others
3231131491
All other general commercial screen printing, nec (excluding printing on apparel or fabrics)
32311316
Other commercial and general job screen printing
3231131651
Screen printing on metal
3231131656
Screen printing on glass or plastics containers for others
3231131691
All other commercial and general job screen printing, except on textiles, including customized stationary
3231132
SCREEN PRINTED LABELS
32311321
Screen printed labels
3231132111
Screen printed labels, made of paper, custom and stock, including bordered, pressure_sensitive, flat
3231132116
Screen printed labels, made of paper, custom and stock, including bordered, pressure_sensitive, rolls
3231132121
Screen printed labels, made of paper, custom and stock, including bordered, except pressure_sensitive
3231132126
Screen printed labels, made of materials other than paper (including cloth), custom and stock, including bordered
3231133
Screen printing on garments, apparel, and other fabric articles
32311331
Screen printing on garments, apparel accessories, and other fabric articles
3231133111
Screen printing on apparel and apparel accessories, made of any material
3231133116
Screen printing on fabric articles other than apparel or apparel accessories
3231133121
Stamped art goods for embroidering, punching, and needlework
3231134
SCREEN PRINTING ON GARMENTS, APPAREL ACCESSORIES, AND OTHER FABRIC ARTICLES, EXCEPT LABELS
32311341
Screen printing on garments, apparel accessories, and other fabric articles, except labels
3231134111
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