The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Soap, Cleaning Compound, and Toilet Preparations: World Market Segmentation by City
ICON Group International, January 2011, Pages: 348
Market Potential Estimation Methodology
Overview
This study covers the world outlook for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations across more than 2000 cities. For the year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the city in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the city is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the cities of the world). This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E. for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s cities. In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent demand for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a city market.
Another reason why sales do not equate to latent demand is exchange rates. In this report, all figures assume the long-run efficiency of currency markets. Figures, therefore, equate values based on purchasing power parities across countries. Short-run distortions in the value of the dollar, therefore, do not figure into the estimates. Purchasing power parity estimates of country income were collected from official sources, and extrapolated using standard econometric models. The report uses the dollar as the currency of comparison, but not as a measure of transaction volume. The units used in this report are: US $ mln.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.
As mentioned earlier, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
The Methodology
In order to estimate the latent demand for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations on a city-by-city basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.
Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries or cities are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to others for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).
The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.
Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all cities and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).
Given this caveat, this study covers “manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations The NAICS code for manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations is 3256. It is for this definition of manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations” is specifically defined as follows:
3256
Soap, Cleaning Compound, and Toilet Preparation Manufacturing
32561
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing and packaging soap and other cleaning compounds, surface active agents, and textile and leather finishing agents used to reduce tension or speed the drying process.
325611
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing and packaging soaps and other detergents, such as laundry detergents; dishwashing detergents; toothpaste gels, and tooth powders; and natural glycerin.
3256111
Commercial, industrial, institutional soap & detergents, excl specialty cleaners
32561111
Soaps and detergents, commercial, industrial, and institutional
3256111111
Dry hard surface commercial, industrial, and institutional cleaners
3256111121
Liquid hard surface commercial, industrial, and institutional cleaners
3256111131
Aerosol hard surface commercial, industrial, and institutional cleaners
32561112
Commercial, industrial, and institutional laundry detergents
3256111211
Commercial, industrial, and institutional dry laundry detergents
3256111221
Commercial, industrial, and institutional liquid laundry detergents
32561113
Commercial, industrial, and institutional dishwashing detergents
3256111311
Commercial, industrial, and institutional dry dishwashing detergents
3256111321
Commercial, industrial, and institutional liquid dishwashing detergents
32561114
Commercial, industrial, and institutional metal cleaners
3256111411
Commercial, industrial, and institutional metal cleaners
32561115
Commercial, industrial, and institutional scouring cleaners
3256111511
Commercial, industrial, and institutional scouring cleaners
32561116
Dairy, farm, and food plant cleaners, sanitizers, etc.
3256111611
Dairy, farm, and food plant cleaners, sanitizers, etc.
32561117
Commercial, industrial, and institutional soaps, excluding specialty cleaners
3256111711
Commercial, industrial, and institutional soap chips, flakes, granules, powders, and sprays, including washing powders, excluding specialty cleaners
3256111721
Commercial, industrial, and institutional liquid (potash and other) soaps, excluding shampoos and specialty cleaners
3256111731
Other commercial, industrial, and institutional soaps, including mechanics’ hand soap, excluding specialty cleaners
3256111741
All other commercial, industrial, and institutional cleaners, including dry cleaners, liquid, dry, and aerosol
3256114
Household detergents
32561141
Household dry laundry detergents
3256114111
Household dry laundry detergents, light_duty
3256114121
Household dry laundry detergents, heavy_duty, phosphate based
32561142
Household dry laundry detergents, heavy_duty, phosphate free
3256114211
Household dry laundry detergents, heavy_duty, phosphate free
32561143
Household liquid laundry detergents, light_duty
3256114311
Household liquid laundry detergents, light_duty
32561144
Household liquid laundry detergents, heavy_duty
3256114411
Household liquid laundry detergents, heavy_duty
32561145
Household alkaline dishwashing detergents
3256114511
Household liquid alkaline automatic dishwashing detergents
3256114521
Household dry alkaline automatic dishwashing detergents
3256114531
Household liquid alkaline hard surface cleaners, including degreasers
3256114541
Household aerosol alkaline hard surface cleaners, including degreasers
3256114551
Household dry alkaline hard surface cleaners, including degreasers
3256114561
Household liquid alkaline scouring cleaners
3256114571
Household dry alkaline scouring cleaners
3256114581
All other household alkaline detergents
3256114591
Household laundry presoaks
3256117
Household soaps, except specialty cleaners
32561171
Household deodorant bar soaps, excluding medicated
3256117111
Household deodorant bar soaps, excluding medicated
32561172
Household nondeodorant bar soaps, excluding medicated
3256117211
Household nondeodorant bar soaps, excluding medicated
32561173
Household novelty bar soaps, excluding medicated
3256117311
Household novelty bar soaps, excluding medicated
3256117321
Household liquid toilet soaps, excluding medicated
3256117331
Other household soaps, including mechanics’ hand soaps (excluding waterless), and medicated soaps
325611A
GLYCERIN, NATURAL
325611A1
Glycerin, natural
325611A111
Crude glycerin, natural, 100_percent basis
325611A121
Other natural glycerin
325611A131
Glycerin, refined (all grades 100 percent basis)
325611D
Toothpaste, including gels and toothpowder
325611D1
Toothpaste, including gels and toothpowder
325611D100
Toothpaste, including gels and toothpowder
325611M
Miscellaneous receipts
325611P
Primary products
325611S
Secondary products
325611SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
325612
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing and packaging polishes and specialty cleaning preparations.
3256121
HOUSEHOLD BLEACHES (CHLORINE AND NONCHLORINE)
32561211
Household bleaches (chlorine and nonchlorine)
3256121111
Household liquid chlorine (sodium hypochlorite etc.)
3256121121
Household liquid nonchlorine bleach (hydrogen peroxide, etc.)
3256121131
Household dry chlorine (chlorinated isocyanurates, etc.)
3256121141
Household dry nonchlorine bleach (sodium perborate, etc.)
3256121150
Chlorine and other inorganic bleaching compounds, household, liquid (sodium hypochlorite, etc., 7 percent or more available chlorine or equivalent oxidizing value, 100 percent Cl equivalent)
3256121170
Chlorine and other inorganic bleaching compounds, household, dry (calcium hypochlorite, etc., 50 percent or more available chlorine or equivalent oxidizing value, 100 percent Cl equivalent)
3256122
Household bleaches (chlorine and nonchlorine)
3256123
Specialty cleaning and sanitation products
325612332
Disinfectants, nonagricultural
325612343
Household laundry aids, incl. fabric softeners and rinses
325612383
Air and room fresheners
325612399
Other spec. cleaning prods., incl. glass window preps., toilet bowl clnrs., rug clnrs., etc.
3256124
Polishing preparations and related products
32561241
Disinfectants, nonagricultural, industrial and institutional
3256124111
Disinfectants, nonagricultural, industrial and institutional
32561242
Dry laundry fabric softeners and rinses
3256124211
Dry laundry fabric softeners and rinses
3256124221
Household liquid laundry fabric softeners and rinses
3256124231
Industrial and institutional liquid laundry fabric softeners and rinses
3256124241
Laundry dryer sheets
3256124251
Laundry starch preparations, including permanent types
3256124261
Other laundry aids, including ironing aids and drycleaning spotting preparations
32561243
Air and room fresheners
3256124311
Air and room fresheners, aerosol_type, household
3256124321
Air and room fresheners, aerosol_type, industrial and institutional
3256124331
Other air and room fresheners (excluding potpourri), household
3256124341
Other air and room fresheners (excluding potpourri), industrial and institutional
32561244
Other specialty cleaning products, including glass window preparations, toilet bowl cleaners, and rug cleaners, etc.
3256124411
Glass window cleaning preparations, except automotive windshield washer fluid, household
3256124421
Glass window cleaning preparations, except automotive windshield washer fluid, industrial and institutional
3256124431
Automotive windshield washer fluid
3256124441
Oven cleaners
3256124451
Toilet bowl cleaners, household
3256124461
Toilet bowl cleaners, industrial and institutional
3256124471
Drain pipe solvents
3256124481
Bathroom, tub, and tile cleaners
3256124491
Disinfectants, nonagricultural, household
32561244E1
Rug and upholstery cleaners, consumer~type preparations
32561244F1
Rug and upholstery cleaners, industrial~ and institutional~type preparations
32561244G1
Household ammonia
32561244H1
Cat litter, except natural and untreated materials
32561244J1
Other specialty detergents, including sweeping compounds, waterless hand cleaners, wallpaper cleaners, etc.
32561245
Specialty cleaning and sanitation products
3256124511
Glass window cleaning preparations, excluding automotive windshield washer fluid, household
3256124521
Glass window cleaning preparations, excluding automotive windshield washer fluid, industrial and institutional
3256124531
Automotive windshield washer fluid
3256124541
Oven cleaners
3256124551
Toilet bowl cleaners, household
3256124561
Toilet bowl cleaners, industrial and institutional
3256124571
Drain pipe solvents
3256124581
Bathroom, tub, and tile cleaners
3256124591
Disinfectants, nonagricultural, household
32561245E1
Rug and upholstery cleaners, consumer_type preparations
32561245F1
Rug and upholstery cleaners, industrial_ and institutional_type preparations
32561245G1
Household ammonia
32561245J1
Other specialty detergents, including sweeping compounds, waterless hand cleaners, wallpaper cleaners, etc.
3256127
POLISHING PREPARATIONS AND RELATED PRODUCTS
32561271
Polishing preparations and related products
3256127111
Automobile polish and cleaners, household
3256127121
Automobile polish and cleaners, industrial and institutional
3256127131
Furniture polish and cleaners, household
3256127141
Furniture polish and cleaners, industrial and institutional
3256127151
Floor polish, water emulsion, household
3256127161
Floor polish, water emulsion, industrial and institutional
3256127171
Floor polish, liquid (nonemulsion)
3256127181
Floor polish other than liquid form, including paste and cake
3256127191
Shoe polishes and cleaners
32561271A1
Leather dressings and finishes, excluding shoe polish
32561271B1
Other polishing preparations and related products, including metal polish and polishing cloths and papers
325612M
Miscellaneous receipts
325612P
Primary products
325612S
Secondary products
325612SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
325613
This U.S. industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in (1) manufacturing bulk surface active agents for use as wetting agents, emulsifiers, and penetrants, and/or (2) manufacturing textiles and leather finishing agents used to reduce tension or speed the drying process.
3256130
SURFACTANTS, FINISHING AGENTS, AND ASSISTANTS
32561301
Surfactants, finishing agents, and assistants
3256130111
Textile assistants
3256130121
Textile finishes
3256130131
Leather assistants and finishes
32561302
Surfactants (bulk surface active agents)
3256130241
Surfactants (bulk surface active agents)
3256131
Textile and leather assistants and finishes
3256135
Bulk surface-active agents (surfactants)
325613M
Miscellaneous receipts
325613P
Primary products
325613S
Secondary products
325613SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
32562
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in preparing, blending, compounding, and packaging toilet preparations, such as perfumes, shaving preparations, hair preparations, face creams, lotions (including sunscreens), and other cosmetic preparations.
325620
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in preparing, blending, compounding, and packaging toilet preparations, such as perfumes, shaving preparations, hair preparations, face creams, lotions (including sunscreens), and other cosmetic preparations.
3256201
Shaving preparations
32562011
Shaving preparations
3256201111
Shaving soap and cream
3256201121
Aftershave preparations (all forms)
3256201131
Other shaving preparations, including preshave preparations and styptics
3256204
Perfume, toilet water, and cologne
32562041
Perfumes, toilet waters, and colognes
3256204111
Perfume oil mixtures and blends
3256204121
Perfumes
3256204131
Toilet waters
32562042
Colognes
3256204211
Colognes
3256207
Hair preparations (including shampoos)
32562071
Hair preparations (including shampoos)
3256207111
Professional hair shampoos containing soap, including products with additives for coloring, dandruff removal, etc.
3256207121
Consumer use hair shampoos containing soap, including products with additives for coloring, dandruff removal, etc.
3256207131
Professional liquid hair shampoos containing synthetic organic chemicals, including products with additives for coloring, dandruff removal, etc.
3256207141
Consumer use liquid hair shampoos containing synthetic organic chemicals, including products with additives for coloring, dandruff removal, etc.
3256207151
Cream and gel hair shampoos containing synthetic organic chemicals, including products with additives for coloring, dandruff removal, etc.
32562072
Hair tonics, including hair and scalp conditioners
3256207211
Professional hair tonics, including hair and scalp conditioners
3256207221
Consumer use hair tonics, including hair and scalp conditioners
3256207231
Professional use hair mousse
3256207241
Consumer use hair mousse
3256207251
Consumer use hair perms (complete and refill)
3256207261
Professional hair perms
3256207271
Hair dressings, including brilliantines, creams, and pomades
3256207281
Professional use hair coloring preparations (bleaches, dyes, rinses, tints, etc.)
3256207291
Consumer use hair coloring preparations (bleaches, dyes, rinses, tints, etc.)
32562072A1
Aerosol hair spray
32562072B1
Nonaerosol hair spray
32562072C1
Hair rinses, excluding color rinses
32562072D1
Other hair preparations, including heat setting wave solutions
325620A
Denture cleaners and other oral hygiene products
325620A1
Dentifrices, mouthwashes, gargles, and rinses
325620A111
Denture cleaners
325620A121
Other oral hygiene products, including dental floss, dental adhesives, etc. (excluding toothbrushes and toothpicks)
325620D
Creams, lotions, oils (excl. shaving, hair, deodorant, eye, manicuring and bath)
325620D1
Creams, excluding shaving
325620D111
Cleansing creams
325620D121
Foundation creams
325620D131
Lubricating creams, including hormone creams
325620D141
Moisturizing creams
325620D151
Other creams, excluding shaving, hair, deodorant, eye, and manicuring creams
325620D2
Lotions and oils
325620D211
Suntan lotions and oils
325620D221
Sunscreens and sunblocks (lotions and oils)
325620D231
Cleansing lotions (excluding hair, shaving, and bath)
325620D241
Cosmetic oils, including baby oils but excluding suntan oils
325620D251
Hand lotions
325620D261
Body lotions, excluding bath lotions
325620D271
Other lotions and oils, excluding hair, shaving, and bath
325620G
Other cosmetics and toilet preparations, nec
325620G1
Cosmetics
325620G111
Lip cosmetics and toilet preparations (lipstick, lip gloss, lip conditioners, etc.)
325620G121
Blushers
325620G131
Eye cosmetics and toilet preparations (mascara, eye shadow, eye liners, eye creams, etc.)
325620G2
Deodorants and feminine hygiene douches, except medicated
325620G211
Feminine hygiene douches and deodorants (excluding medicated)
325620G221
Underarm deodorants, aerosol and spray type
325620G231
Underarm deodorants, roll_on, solid, and other types
325620G3
Other cosmetics and toilet preparations
325620G311
Nail enamels and polishes
325620G321
Nail enamel and polish removers
325620G331
Other manicuring preparations (including nail and cuticle conditioners and creams)
325620G341
Talcum and toilet powder
325620G351
Face powder (pressed and loose)
325620G361
Other powder, including foot powder, etc.
325620G371
Bath salts, tablets, oils, and bubble baths
325620G381
Premoistened towelettes, including wipes for babies
325620G391
Facial scrubs and masks
325620G3A1
Depilatories
325620G3B1
Other cosmetics and toiletries
325620M
Miscellaneous receipts
325620P
Primary products
325620S
Secondary products
325620SM
Secondary products and miscellaneous receipts
Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing
Based on the aggregate view of manufacturing soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparations as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries and cities as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or "filtered" from the analysis.
Step 3. Filling in Missing Values
In some cases, data are available for countries or cities on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data may be available for only one year. From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national income. Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), cities which have missing data for any given year, are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that country.
Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation
Given the data available from the first three steps, the latent demand is estimated using a “varying-parameter cross-sectionally pooled time series model”. Si
1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY
1.1 Overview and Definitions
1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology
1.2.1 Overview
1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?
1.2.3 The Methodology
1.2.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
1.2.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing
1.2.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values
1.2.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation
1.2.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation
1.2.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking
2 USING THE DATA
3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE
3.1 Top 15 Markets
3.2 Markets 16 to 30
3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank
4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER
4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah
4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz
4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu
4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak
4.5 E: from East London to Esteli
4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal
4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri
4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad
4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir
4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla
4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda
4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon
4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu
4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore
4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem
4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro
4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan
4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito
4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi
4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely
4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre
4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei
4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar
4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan
4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an
4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang
4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane
5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY
5.1 Afghanistan
5.2 Albania
5.3 Algeria
5.4 American Samoa
5.5 Andorra
5.6 Angola
5.7 Antigua and Barbuda
5.8 Argentina
5.9 Armenia
5.10 Aruba
5.11 Australia
5.12 Austria
5.13 Azerbaijan
5.14 Bahrain
5.15 Bangladesh
5.16 Barbados
5.17 Belarus
5.18 Belgium
5.19 Belize
5.20 Benin
5.21 Bermuda
5.22 Bhutan
5.23 Bolivia
5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina
5.25 Botswana
5.26 Brazil
5.27 Brunei
5.28 Bulgaria
5.29 Burkina Faso
5.30 Burma
5.31 Burundi
5.32 Cambodia
5.33 Cameroon
5.34 Canada
5.35 Cape Verde
5.36 Central African Republic
5.37 Chad
5.38 Chile
5.39 China
5.40 Christmas Island
5.41 Colombia
5.42 Comoros
5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire)
5.44 Cook Islands
5.45 Costa Rica
5.46 Cote d'Ivoire
5.47 Croatia
5.48 Cuba
5.49 Cyprus
5.50 Czech Republic
5.51 Denmark
5.52 Djibouti
5.53 Dominica
5.54 Dominican Republic
5.55 Ecuador
5.56 Egypt
5.57 El Salvador
5.58 Equatorial Guinea
5.59 Estonia
5.60 Ethiopia
5.61 Fiji
5.62 Finland
5.63 France
5.64 French Guiana
5.65 French Polynesia
5.66 Gabon
5.67 Georgia
5.68 Germany
5.69 Ghana
5.70 Greece
5.71 Greenland
5.72 Grenada
5.73 Guadeloupe
5.74 Guam
5.75 Guatemala
5.76 Guinea
5.77 Guinea-Bissau
5.78 Guyana
5.79 Haiti
5.80 Honduras
5.81 Hong Kong
5.82 Hungary
5.83 Iceland
5.84 India
5.85 Indonesia
5.86 Iran
5.87 Iraq
5.88 Ireland
5.89 Israel
5.90 Italy
5.91 Jamaica
5.92 Japan
5.93 Jordan
5.94 Kazakhstan
5.95 Kenya
5.96 Kiribati
5.97 Kuwait
5.98 Kyrgyzstan
5.99 Laos
5.100 Latvia
5.101 Lebanon
5.102 Lesotho
5.103 Liberia
5.104 Libya
5.105 Liechtenstein
5.106 Lithuania
5.107 Luxembourg
5.108 Macau
5.109 Madagascar
5.110 Malawi
5.111 Malaysia
5.112 Maldives
5.113 Mali
5.114 Malta
5.115 Marshall Islands
5.116 Martinique
5.117 Mauritania
5.118 Mauritius
5.119 Mexico
5.120 Micronesia Federation
5.121 Moldova
5.122 Monaco
5.123 Mongolia
5.124 Morocco
5.125 Mozambique
5.126 Namibia
5.127 Nauru
5.128 Nepal
5.129 New Caledonia
5.130 New Zealand
5.131 Nicaragua
5.132 Niger
5.133 Nigeria
5.134 Niue
5.135 Norfolk Island
5.136 North Korea
5.137 Norway
5.138 Oman
5.139 Pakistan
5.140 Palau
5.141 Palestine
5.142 Panama
5.143 Papua New Guinea
5.144 Paraguay
5.145 Peru
5.146 Philippines
5.147 Poland
5.148 Portugal
5.149 Puerto Rico
5.150 Qatar
5.151 Republic of Congo
5.152 Reunion
5.153 Romania
5.154 Russia
5.155 Rwanda
5.156 San Marino
5.157 Sao Tome E Principe
5.158 Saudi Arabia
5.159 Senegal
5.160 Seychelles
5.161 Sierra Leone
5.162 Singapore
5.163 Slovakia
5.164 Slovenia
5.165 Solomon Islands
5.166 Somalia
5.167 South Africa
5.168 South Korea
5.169 Spain
5.170 Sri Lanka
5.171 St. Kitts and Nevis
5.172 St. Lucia
5.173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines
5.174 Sudan
5.175 Suriname
5.176 Swaziland
5.177 Sweden
5.178 Switzerland
5.179 Syrian Arab Republic
5.180 Taiwan
5.181 Tajikistan
5.182 Tanzania
5.183 Thailand
5.184 The Bahamas
5.185 The British Virgin Islands
5.186 The Cayman Islands
5.187 The Falkland Islands
5.188 The Gambia
5.189 The Netherlands
5.190 The Netherlands Antilles
5.191 The Northern Mariana Island
5.192 The U.S. Virgin Islands
5.193 The United Arab Emirates
5.194 The United Kingdom
5.195 The United States
5.196 Togo
5.197 Tokelau
5.198 Tonga
5.199 Trinidad and Tobago
5.200 Tunisia
5.201 Turkey
5.202 Turkmenistan
5.203 Tuvalu
5.204 Uganda
5.205 Ukraine
5.206 Uruguay
5.207 Uzbekistan
5.208 Vanuatu
5.209 Venezuela
5.210 Vietnam
5.211 Wallis and Futuna
5.212 Western Sahara
5.213 Western Samoa
5.214 Yemen
5.215 Zambia
5.216 Zimbabwe
6 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS
6.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor
6.2 ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions
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